Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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543 FXUS64 KMEG 231513 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1013 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1005 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A weak cold front currently stretches from the Great Lakes southwestward to Southeast Missouri/North Central Arkansas. A broken line of showers is occurring ahead of the front from Northwest Tennessee are East-Central Arkansas. Will update to bump up POPS based on current coverage on radar. Expect coverage to expand as additional thunderstorms develop as peak daytime heating occurs. Will also bump up winds as winds are gusting a little higher ahead of the front. Update will be out shortly. KRM && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 An approaching weak cold front combined with a warm, moist, and unstable airmass may result in the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Mid- South, especially during peak daytime heating. A strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorm is possible with damaging winds and localized heavy rainfall as the main threats. This humid airmass combined with very hot temperatures will produce heat index values at or above 105 degrees at times through Tuesday. A cold front will bring a better chance for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday with slightly cooler temperatures. A return of hot temperatures is possible towards next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends show a shortwave trough located from the Great Lakes Region back through the Central Plains. Latest surface analysis places a cold front from northern Illinois to northwest Missouri and southern Kansas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show the trailing edge of showers and thunderstorms just upstream of the Mid-South over portions of southeast Missouri. Very warm and humid conditions persist ahead of this front with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s along the Tennessee River and middle 70s to around 80 degrees elsewhere. Short-term models including the latest CAMs show the upstream convection dropping into the northern third of the area this morning and weakening as better forcing moves east into the Ohio Valley. Model soundings indicate the potential for re-development as convective temperatures are reached during peak heating. Surface-based CAPE values rising to or above 2000 J/kg and around 20 kts of shear suggest a pulse-type character to any convection that develops. Isolated to low end scattered pops seem reasonable given the very conditional environment that will be in place across the area. Additionally, mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak which may temper the overall severe weather threat to a degree. Damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threat if any thunderstorms can become severe. Localized heavy rainfall will also be possible as precipitable water values rise up to around 2 inches. Surface dewpoints are expected to pool ahead of this front today as temperatures rise into the 90s this afternoon. These hot temperatures combined with high dewpoints will result in heat index values rising at or above 105 degrees. Consequently, the existing Heat Advisory was expanded to cover the remainder of the Mid-South until early this evening. Additional Heat Advisories look likely especially along and west of the Mississippi River on Monday and across most of the Mid-South on Tuesday. Some uncertainty exists for heat headlines on Monday east of the Mississippi River as this front will result in slightly lower dewpoints. Long term operational and ensemble model trends continue to indicate a better potential for showers and thunderstorms across most of the Mid-South on Wednesday as a mid-level trough and associated cold front move through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. A few of these thunderstorms may have the potential to become strong to severe as the parameter space will be slightly better than today. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for late this week followed by a return of very hot temperatures as the upper-level ridge builds back into the region by next weekend. CJC && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 No major changes from previous TAF. Winds will be a bit gusty as a cold front approaches MEM. Coverage of showers is very isolated resulting in VCSH to remain at MEM and JBR. MKL has the best chance of thunder. Guidance is a bit all over the place for winds post-frontal, but look to remain light in speed. If skies rapidly clear after FROPA, BR conds may develop. DNM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058. MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115. MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-020>024. TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...KRM AVIATION...DNM