Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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397 FXUS64 KMEG 100908 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 408 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Cooler and drier air will filter in behind a cold front through Tuesday. Afternoon highs will be in the 80s and lows tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A building ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather into the first half of next weekend with temperatures rising into the lower to middle 90s. Increasing humidity will result in a return of shower and thunderstorm chances by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends this morning shows an upper- level centered over eastern Quebec with an upper-level ridge axis centered over the Rockies. Latest surface analysis places a cold front from central Georgia back through the I-20 corridor from Mississippi into northeast Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of central Arkansas into portions of north and central Mississippi. Winds are relatively light behind this front and the combination of nearly calm winds and rainfall in the past 24 hours has resulted in the development of locally dense fog and low stratus across northwest Tennessee near the Tennessee River. As of 3 AM CDT, temperatures range from the upper 50s to lower 60s north of I-40, and middle 60s to lower 70s south. The aforementioned low stratus and fog should begin to improve this morning as temperatures warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 9 AM CDT and will be monitored for possible expansion before expiration if short-term trends warrant any adjustments. Cooler and slightly less humid air will continue to filter in behind the front over the next 48 hours as high pressure builds across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Highs this afternoon and Tuesday will be mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows tonight falling back into the 50s. Mid to long range operational and ensemble model trends continue to show an upper-level ridge building across the Lower Mississippi Valley into late this week. 00Z NAEFS indicates temperatures be about 1 to 2 standard deviations from normal across the region, resulting in temperatures in the lower to middle 90s. These hot temperatures combined with slowly increasing low level moisture may result in heat index values between 100-103 degrees towards the latter half of the weekend. A weak back door cold front will try to drop into the area Friday night into Saturday with confidence remaining too low to introduce rain chances into the forecast at this time. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be possible late in the weekend as tropical moisture from the Gulf moves up into the region. CJC && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 While VFR conditions are expected to prevail at most terminals through the TAF period, guidance has hinted at the potential for fog development at MKL starting later tonight between 09-12z. Near surface winds are forecast to remain out of the north to northeast between 5-10 knots, with the potential for gusts between 15-20 knots in the afternoon at all sites except TUP. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ002>004- 021-022. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...JPR