Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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897 FXUS64 KMEG 241731 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front slowly moves across the region. A few thunderstorms may be strong to severe, along the Tennessee River Valley with gusty winds being the primary threat. An upper level disturbance will reside over the region for the next several days resulting in below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation chances through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Monday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Latest surface analysis depicts a stalled frontal boundary just to the northwest of the Missouri Bootheel. This boundary combined with around 40kts of effective shear, has been able to fire up some convection depicted on KNQA at this hour. A weak bit of CIN has been able to allow these storms to quickly collapse on themselves in early stages. Prior to collapse of these storms, gusty winds (50 mph or less) remain the primary threat. As daytime heating commences, surface based instability will rise, lift provided from the aforementioned front slowly pushing southeast; a Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place. Mid-level lapse rates will be the limiting factor in any deep convection development today. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out today with primary threats being damaging winds and hail. Areas along the Tennessee River Valley have the highest chance of seeing a strong to severe storm this afternoon into evening hours. A deep trough from the Northern Plains will phase with the slow moving front expected to cross the region today. The result of this phase, will leave a cutoff low over the Middle Mississippi Valley for a large portion of the forecast period. This will result in below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation chances. Awaiting a pattern change will come from the development and track of Tropical Cyclone 9 anticipated to make landfall along the Florida Panhandle later this week. The current precipitation forecast from WPC for the next 7 days is 2-3" along the Tennessee River Valley and less further west. This forecast will likely change depending on the track of the tropical system and the potential interaction with the presence of the cut off low. DNM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Current satellite imagery shows a trough digging through the region this morning with associated clouds. So far, only intermittent drops to MVFR have been seen across E AR. Have included FEW025 to account for any drops into MVFR at JBR/MEM through 00z. Otherwise, the most notable impact through this afternoon will be TS in the vicinity of MKL/TUP. A cold front is currently in E AR and will continue eastward throughout the period with storms forming along it. Convection is expected to persist in the region through at least 22z up until 00z this evening. Overnight, clouds should generally lower in coverage before post- frontal CIGs at 10 kft overspread the region. Some visibility drops are possible in MKL, so kept 4 SM for now with changes being possible in subsequent TAFs. Otherwise, VFR is likely to prevail for much of the remainder of the period at all sites with a clearing trend through tomorrow. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...JAB