Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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661 FXUS64 KMEG 191713 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1213 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 12Z upper-air analysis this morning shows an elongated ridge axis stretching from New England back through the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, 15Z surface analysis shows a 1017 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This is resulting in mostly sunny skies and temperatures as of 10 AM CDT in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the Mid-South. 925 mb temperatures should warm to around 21-22C, translating to afternoon highs in the middle to upper 80s. Will make some adjustments to this afternoon`s high temperature. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is in great shape. CJC && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 A Dense Fog Advisory remains in affect for portions of West Tennessee, Northeast Mississippi, and the Missouri Bootheel through the early morning hours resulting in to potential dangerous driving conditions. High pressure will settle across the Mid-South later this morning leading to benign weather with increasing temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s to begin our workweek. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase again early Wednesday and will extend into Memorial Day weekend as a unsettled weather pattern develops across the region. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Current temperatures at this hour are in the lower 60s to lower 70s with mostly calm winds at the surface, and clear skies areawide. Excess moisture from yesterday afternoon`s convection combined with clear skies and calm winds has lead to a pretty foggy morning. Many sites along the Tennessee River, extending west are reporting 1/4 SM visibilities leading to a need for a Dense Fog Advisory over portions of West Tennessee, Northeast Mississippi, and the Missouri Bootheel. Fog should begin to lift shortly after sunrise as winds begin to increase across the region. Surface and upper level ridging continue to build in across the Mid- South, and will eventually settle later this morning. As a result, pretty benign weather through will prevail through for the beginning of the workweek. South winds and the aforementioned ridge will usher in warm, dry from the southwest leading to a pretty warm start to the beginning of the week with many areas across the region seeing near 90 degree temperatures. Come late Tuesday, an upper level low looks to form over the Upper Great Lakes region while a surface low looks to form over Missouri with an attached cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to form along this cold front early Wednesday morning. The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms continues to grow for Wednesday as time draws closer. Long range models are hinting at a 50-70% chance of 1000 J/kg of surface based CAPE and 30 kts of bulk shear in areas along and west of the Mississippi River with the movement of convection Wednesday. Though confidence remains on the lower end for our area as greater potential for severe weather remains displaced to our northwest over the Middle Mississippi Valley. By Friday morning, the aforementioned cold front looks to move north as a warm front giving lift to continued showers and thunderstorms. We are keeping 30-60% chance PoPs in the forecast through Friday. Another cold front looks to dip down from the Middle Mississippi Valley Saturday morning leading to continued shower and thunderstorm chances (25-40%) through Memorial Day Weekend. AEH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Winds will be mainly from the northeast around 5 knots this afternoon before becoming light and variable tonight. Winds on Monday will be from the southeast around 5 knots. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...ARS