Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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170 FXUS64 KMEG 110200 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 900 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 855 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Forecast is on track. No significant changes needed this evening. Tomorrow looks mild with low relative humidity but temperatures rebound back to near 90 degrees by Thursday. The weekend looks even hotter featuring high temperatures in the low to middle 90s with heat indices over 100 degrees possible. No significant rain is expected through the weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Dry weather will continue across the Midsouth through the end of the week. Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday, especially at night. Temperatures will warm to well above normal for the latter half of the week, under building high pressure aloft. Tropical air and a weak upper level disturbance will return rain chances to the Midsouth late Sunday through the early part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper level longwave tough over the eastern third of the U.S. with northwest flow over the Midsouth. At the surface, regional METARs showed light northerly winds and dewpoints in the 50s. Dewpoints will remain in the 50s through Wednesday. This dry air will allow for wider than typical diurnal temperature ranges, with overnight lows averaging 10 degrees below normal. The dry air will likewise warm efficiently, with daytime highs just a few degrees below normal. By Thursday, an upper level ridge will edge in from the southern plains, with most of the Midsouth experiencing high temperatures around 90. The upper ridge will lift into the lower MS River Valley on Saturday, with 500mb geopotential heights reaching 593 dam. By this time, evapotranspiration and weak southerly surface flow will warm surface dewpoints near 70, resulting in heat indices around 100. Add a couple more degrees to those heat indices on Sunday, as temperatures and dewpoints warm under the western lobe of the upper ridge. Increasing surface dewpoints and a weak upper trough over LA will return rain chances to north MS on Sunday. The weak upper trough will lift north through the lower and middle MS River Valley early next week, likely further weakening in the process. The net result for the Midsouth will be weak daytime convective inhibition, and a continued chance storms through the middle of next week. PWB && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Clear skies and calm winds look to promote radiational cooling at MKL later tonight, resulting in reduced visibilities and potential fog development. Otherwise, VFR conditions look to prevail across the remainder of the Mid-South through the TAF period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...JPR