Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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422 FXUS64 KMEG 211931 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 231 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast across the Midsouth on Sunday, as a strong upper level ridge prevails over the lower Mississippi River Valley. This ridge will weaken on Monday, suppressed by an upper level low pressure system extending from the central plains into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along an accompanying cold front as it enters the Midsouth Monday afternoon and evening. A few severe thunderstorms will be possible north of Interstate 40, with a Marginal Risk for damaging winds and large hail. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Upper level ridging will be a little stronger over the Midsouth on Sunday, as heights briefly amplify in advance of a positive- tilted trough lifting out of the central Rockies. By Monday afternoon, this trough will provide sufficient height falls for scattered showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-40. A weak surface cold front will provide some focus for convection, but uncertainty remains with respect to warm sector clouds and instability. 0-6km bulk shear around 35 knots will aid storm organization potential. Midlevel lapse rates appear supportive for marginally-severe hail, but damaging winds will be primary threat if surface-based instability potential is realized. The weak cold front will stall across the Midsouth on Tuesday, becoming parallel with the west-southwesterly flow aloft. Medium range guidance consensus drops a deepening closed low from the Missouri River Valley into the western Ozarks on Wednesday. Tropical moisture may become entrained in the strengthening south-southwesterly flow ahead of this low, depending on developments in the Gulf of Mexico. Clouds and low end rain chances will continue over the Midsouth through mid to late week, with seasonal daytime temperatures. Late week rain chances may edge upward in future forecasts, depending on the evolution of the closed low over the southern plains and potential tropical system development in the Gulf of Mexico. PWB && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR. Patchy fog is expected overnight at MKL. TUP could also see some patchy fog over this same period, though confidence was not high enough to include in TAF. VCTS will continue at JBR through the afternoon as a decaying MCS continues moving over NE AR/the MO Bootheel. Convection may impact MEM later this afternoon, though confidence was not high enough to prevail in TAF. Predominately south/southwest winds sub 10 kts will remain across all terminals. AEH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...AEH