139
FXUS64 KMEG 210259 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
959 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Skies were mostly clear across the Midsouth at 9 PM. GOES water
vapor imagery showed scattered cirrus moving in an anti-cyclonic
fashion, consistent with upper level ridging. At the surface,
winds were calm, with a few sites reporting light easterly winds.
Temperatures were in the upper 70s to lower 80s, or 1 to 2
degrees warmer than 24 hours previous.

00Z HREF Grand Ensemble showed near zero potential for fog overnight,
with only the NAM Nest member hinting at slight visibility
reductions south of Jackson, TN and around Batesville, MS. 9 PM
observed dewpoint depressions were lowest near the TN River,
around 3 degrees F on average. This area will need to be watched
overnight, but at this time, the probabilities for dense fog
appear low.

Current forecast remains on track.

PWB

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Hot and dry conditions will affect the region over the next couple
of days as high pressure prevails across the Mid-South.
Temperatures will reach the upper 90s over the weekend and heat
advisory headlines may be required as early as Sunday likely lasting
through mid next week. Rain chances also look to return to the
Mid-South early next week with even higher precipitation chances
by midweek as several cold fronts approach the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Latest water vapor analysis places a 597 dam ridge over portions
of the Mid-Atlantic with a broad area of longwave troughing over
the western United States. The forecast expectations remain fairly
consistent with the previous forecast as the mid-level ridge is
expected to build back to the west, resulting in hot and dry
conditions across the Mid-South over the weekend with temperatures
rising in the mid to upper 90s.

Northwest flow looks to begin across the region on Monday and
Tuesday as the mid-level ridge becomes centered over the
southwestern United States. A backdoor cold front will move toward
the Mid-South around Sunday and Monday, which looks to bring rain
chances to the region as dewpoints increase into the low to mid
70s. These dewpoints combined with hot temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s will likely yield heat index values exceeding 105
degrees across the Mid-South starting on Monday, possibly as early
as Sunday if the moisture moves faster than anticipated. These
heat index values look to stick around through at least Wednesday
when another cold front moves toward the Mid-South, bringing not
only somewhat cooler temperatures but a better chance of rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

High pressure continues to build in from the east resulting in
light easterly winds. BR conditions may develop at MKL near
sunrise under clear skies and calm winds. Cirrus/fair weather
clouds will continue.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR
AVIATION...DNM