Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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676 FXUS64 KMEG 161732 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Showers will continue across north Mississippi today before dry conditions return area wide this evening. Fog will possible each night through the forecast period. Daily highs will be in the 80s and morning lows in the upper 50s and 60s as high pressure reigns. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The weak upper low of what was once Francine will finally exit the Mid-South later this afternoon. The remaining moisture field from Francine will interact with an inverted shortwave from east Tennessee and will keep showers across north Mississippi through early evening. The lack of instability once again today will keep thunder out of the forecast. A half an inch may picked up across this area before showers come to an end. Clear skies, light winds, and a saturated surface supports fog development each night through the forecast package. A pleasant week is in store with sunny skies and highs in the 80s. Upper level ridging will build in starting tomorrow as a blocking pattern sets up. The Mid-South will be sandwiched between Tropical System 8 and a deep low over the northern Rockies, but be dominated by the northern ridge. Due to the placement of the ridge, northerly flow is expected to keep days comfortable and nights crisp with lows in the upper 50s and 60s. DNM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Morning showers have begun to dissipate over the past couple hours and drops to MVFR have become seldom. This trend is expected to continue throughout the day as drier air finally overcomes the moisture left behind by Francine this weekend. Therefore, clouds should be well above VFR at all terminals by 21z this afternoon and FEW250/SKC early tonight. With clearing overnight and very saturated soils across the area, moisture will be abundant at or just above the surface. Coupling the surface moisture with clear skies will allow for a decent amount of radiative cooling to occur across much of the region. In response, FG/BR is somewhat of a concern at any terminal where such cooling can occur. At the moment this appears to be most likely at JBR/TUP since dry air advection is expected to eat away at moisture in MEM/MKL. Confidence in these impacts are still somewhat low and could be changed in subsequent TAF issuances. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...JAB