Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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304 FXUS64 KMEG 220954 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 454 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Mainly dry and hot conditions will continue today as an upper level high pressure system remains overhead. An upper level disturbance will move into the region late tonight and linger over the region through late week. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday night. Cloudy conditions, cooler than normal temperatures, and decent chances for rain will occur Wednesday through late next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The latest GOES East lower level water vapor loop reveals a closed low over the Rockies with a dampening ridge over the southern CONUS. A couple of MCSs are riding along the ridge near the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. This upper low will eject a shortwave trough late tonight and push into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Models continue to advertise a positive to neutrally-tilted trough moving through the Mid-South Monday afternoon into Tuesday. 30 to 40 meter height falls will occur along and north of I-40 with scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible. Bulk shear will remain moderate with up to 35 knots and instability will remain on the weaker side with 1000 J/kg or less. The main threat will be damaging winds and large hail. If storms form earlier in the day on Monday, instability will likely be higher and the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms could increase. A weak cold front will push into the Mid-South on Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Dry conditions may move into the region on Wednesday, but uncertainty remains high due to a potential tropical cyclone forming in the Gulf of Mexico next Wednesday. The remnants of this post tropical system could interact with a cutoff low over the Mississippi Valley by late week bringing a heavy rainfall threat to the region. Decided to stick close to the ECMWF in the mid range forecast, which suggests that an upper low will remain over the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week with a tropical system pushing into the eastern GOM. This solution translates to cooler than normal temperatures and a decent chance of showers in the forecast each day through next weekend. The potential tropical system`s intensity and track will be crucial to determining the late week forecast. Stay tuned. AC3 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR conditions continue. Winds will become southwesterly/westerly through the daytime, before settling back to southerly after 00Z. Some -SHRA may begin to move into the area near the end of the current TAF period, but not enough confidence to include for JBR this TAF cycle. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...CMA