249
FXUS62 KMFL 091854
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
254 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

An upper level trough continues to move off into the Atlantic today
and upper level ridging briefly builds in before the next system
starts to approach tomorrow and will be the catalyst for a prolonged
wet period for later this week. Convection today will be primarily
diurnal sea-breeze driven showers and storms. Morning sounding and
ACARS data shows much drier air aloft today, however PWAT values are
still in the 1.8-2 inch range. With light steering flows, slow
moving storms will once again pose an urban flood risk across the
metro. High temps this afternoon will be in the lower 90s, and with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, peak heat indices will again be
over 100 degrees. Some locations may approach advisory criteria,
especially the longer they stay dry today, however with convection
expected to develop across much of the metro this afternoon, there
won`t be enough areal coverage to warrant issuing an advisory, but
folks should still take precautions for the heat and humidity if
they have outdoor plans today.

Convection over land dissipates this evening and convection
overnight will be confined to the Atlantic and Gulf waters, with
some occasional showers possible along the coasts. Low temps tonight
will range from the low to mid 70s around the lake and interior
South FL, to around 80 close to the coasts.

Next shortwave pivoting around the base of a longwave trough over
the eastern US will dive down towards the deep south US on Monday,
with a surface front slowly moving south towards the northern Gulf
and eastward draping across northern FL. Locally, the southerly flow
will start to pull in more tropical moisture, with HREF PWATs
increasing to 2-2.2 inches across South FL during the day.
Convection should be more widespread especially during the afternoon
into early evening hours. As will be the theme for the entire week,
urban flooding will be a concern with any slow moving thunderstorms,
especially if multiple storms pass over the same area in a short
period of time. High temps will be in the lower 90s, and will likely
occur early in the afternoon before convection starts to overspread
the area. Peak heat indices will again top out over 100 degrees, but
afternoon convection will likely prevent any headlines from being
needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A very wet and unsettled weather pattern is shaping up across
South Florida for the middle and the end of the week. A mid level
shortwave will dive southeastward through the Southern Plains on
Tuesday, and then towards the Texas/Louisiana coastline as well as
the Gulf of Mexico for the middle to latter portion of the week.
At the surface, high pressure will remain parked in the western
Atlantic as a surface trough pushes into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. This will keep a south to southwesterly wind flow in place
across South Florida throughout the rest of the week which will
allow for deep tropical moisture advection to take place during
this time frame. The latest guidance continues to show PWAT values
increasing to 2.5 inches or higher for Wednesday through Friday.
With this increased tropical moisture flowing into the region,
rainfall will become numerous to widespread across the area during
the middle to later portion of the week. There could be periods
of heavy rainfall during this time frame which could lead to the
potential for flooding concerns across the region through the end
of the week as multiple rounds of heavy downpours train over the
same areas. While the exact details remain uncertain in regards to
specific amounts of rainfall through the middle and the end of
the week, confidence is increasing that a multiple day widespread
rainfall event could take shape across the area. This will
continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

With increased cloud cover in place, temperatures will be held
down across the region through the middle and end of the week.
High temperatures during this time frame will generally remain in
the lower to mid 80s across most of South Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening
may result in erratic winds and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities.
Outside of thunderstorms, E/SE winds 5-10 kts along the east coast
terminals and a westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Winds overnight will
be light and variable.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over area waters
today and through each day of this upcoming week which may result in
locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of convection, mostly
benign conditions are expected today through mid-week with southerly
winds 5-15 kts and seas 2 ft or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

An increase in tropical moisture is expected this upcoming week,
with PWAT values in excess of 2.5 inches possible which would be
around seasonal maxes. While still too early to pinpoint exact
timing and rainfall amounts, periods of heavy rain are possible
from Tuesday through at least Friday across South Florida.
Repeated bouts of heavy rain may result in flooding, especially
in urban and poor drainage locations. Flood Watches may be needed
this upcoming week as details come more into focus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  90  80  87 /  40  70  80  90
West Kendall     77  92  77  89 /  40  70  80  90
Opa-Locka        79  92  79  90 /  40  70  70  90
Homestead        78  90  79  88 /  40  70  80  90
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  87 /  40  70  80  90
N Ft Lauderdale  79  91  79  88 /  40  70  80  90
Pembroke Pines   79  94  80  91 /  40  70  70  90
West Palm Beach  77  92  76  88 /  40  70  80  90
Boca Raton       79  92  79  90 /  40  70  80  90
Naples           80  92  79  88 /  50  80  90  90

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF