353
FXUS62 KMFL 091615
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1215 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

An upper level trough continues to move off into the Atlantic today
and upper level ridging briefly builds in before the next system
starts to approach tomorrow and will be the catalyst for a prolonged
wet period for later this week. Convection today will be primarily
diurnal sea-breeze driven showers and storms. Morning sounding and
ACARS data shows much drier air aloft today, however PWAT values are
still in the 1.8-2 inch range. With light steering flows, slow
moving storms will once again pose an urban flood risk across the
metro. High temps this afternoon will be in the lower 90s, and with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, peak heat indices will again be
over 100 degrees. Some locations may approach advisory criteria,
especially the longer they stay dry today, however with convection
expected to develop across much of the metro this afternoon, there
won`t be enough areal coverage to warrant issuing an advisory, but
folks should still take precautions for the heat and humidity if
they have outdoor plans today.

Convection over land dissipates this evening and convection
overnight will be confined to the Atlantic and Gulf waters, with
some occasional showers possible along the coasts. Low temps tonight
will range from the low to mid 70s around the lake and interior
South FL, to around 80 close to the coasts.

Next shortwave pivoting around the base of a longwave trough over
the eastern US will dive down towards the deep south US on Monday,
with a surface front slowly moving south towards the northern Gulf
and eastward draping across northern FL. Locally, the southerly flow
will start to pull in more tropical moisture, with HREF PWATs
increasing to 2-2.2 inches across South FL during the day.
Convection should be more widespread especially during the afternoon
into early evening hours. As will be the theme for the entire week,
urban flooding will be a concern with any slow moving thunderstorms,
especially if multiple storms pass over the same area in a short
period of time. High temps will be in the lower 90s, and will likely
occur early in the afternoon before convection starts to overspread
the area. Peak heat indices will again top out over 100 degrees, but
afternoon convection will likely prevent any headlines from being
needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

To begin the long term period, a mid to upper level ridge of high pressure will
remain over the Western Atlantic waters as a mid to upper level
low begins to take shape over the Western Gulf of Mexico. This
will allow for the steering flow to remain south-southwest over
South Florida which results in continuous deep tropical moisture
advection into the region from the Caribbean Sea. In return,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are projected to
continue developing over South Florida each day with the focus
over the interior and east coast metro areas where the sea breezes
collide.

Beginning on Tuesday, long range models are highlighting high pressure
remaining over the Western Atlantic waters with the mid to upper
level low over the Western Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, the
models are showing a tropical low pressure system advecting
northward from the Caribbean Sea into the center of the eastern
half of the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for the continuation
of the south-southwest wind flow over South Florida and allow for
very deep tropical moisture to constantly work into South Florida
from the Caribbean sea. Therefore, numerous rain showers along
with some thunderstorms are forecast for South Florida for the
middle to end of the week. Some of the showers and thunderstorms
could produce periods of heavy rain over South Florida during this
time frame. There is still some uncertainty regarding the track
of the low but it should become more confined over the next couple
of days. More information is provided in the hydro section below.

Highs for this time period extending Tuesday and beyond will be cooler over
South Florida mainly in the 80s due to the cloud cover and rain.
However, the lows will be warm across South Florida with mid to
upper 70s interior areas to around 80 metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again today,
especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. This may
result in erratic winds and sub VFR ceilings/visibilities. Light
and VRB winds early this morning becoming SE around 10 kts late
morning through the afternoon, except APF which will have a
westerly Gulf breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over area waters
today and through each day of this upcoming week which may result in
locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of convection, mostly
benign conditions are expected today through mid-week with southerly
winds 5-15 kts and seas 2 ft or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

An increase in tropical moisture is expected this upcoming week,
with PWAT values in excess of 2.5 inches possible which would be
around seasonal maxes. While still too early to pinpoint exact
timing and rainfall amounts, periods of heavy rain are possible
from Tuesday through at least Friday across South Florida.
Repeated bouts of heavy rain may result in flooding, especially
in urban and poor drainage locations. Flood Watches may be needed
this upcoming week as details come more into focus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  90  79  88 /  40  70  60  80
West Kendall     77  92  76  88 /  40  70  60  80
Opa-Locka        79  92  79  90 /  40  70  60  80
Homestead        78  90  78  88 /  40  70  60  80
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  79  87 /  40  70  70  90
N Ft Lauderdale  79  91  79  88 /  40  70  60  90
Pembroke Pines   79  94  79  91 /  40  70  60  80
West Palm Beach  77  92  76  88 /  40  70  60  90
Boca Raton       79  92  78  89 /  40  70  60  90
Naples           80  92  79  88 /  50  80  80  90

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CMF