Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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642 FXUS62 KMFL 250510 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 110 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Typical summertime conditions will be on tap for South Florida today, with chances for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms throughout the day. Sounding date from the 12Z MFL launch and ACARS flights show moderate instability and lapse rates in place across the area, with a very warm and moist air column up to 500mb (PWATs of 2.15 inches). The combination of these factors - along with some dynamic support from a subtle upper level disturbance over the area - has allowed for a few isolated low-topped showers along the Atlantic waters and East Coast sea breeze already. Activity will continue through the afternoon, with convection over the East Coast very gradually shifting inland and towards the interior and southwest FL. Storm motion will remain slow with weak winds in the low to mid levels, which could lead to localized flooding concerns for poor drainage areas or locations that see multiple rounds of storms. Overnight showers and thunderstorms will be possible, primarily over the Atlantic waters and the East Coast metro. The overall synoptic and mesoscale setup will not change much on Tuesday aside from the upper level disturbance shifting eastward. Winds at the surface will shift from the south-southwest, so we can expect another day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly focused over the interior and East Coast metro areas. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s today and Tuesday, with afternoon heat indices around 100-105. Overnight lows be warm, dropping to the mid 70s over the inland areas and upper 70s to low 80s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The unsettled weather pattern persists as a mid-level trough dives across the Midwest into the Southeast US on Wednesday and Thursday, retaining a weak trough over South Florida through the end of the week. The weak flow will keep the deep tropical moisture in place over the area, with PWAT values in excess of 2 inches expected each day. By this weekend, guidance continues to be in good agreement on the mid-level trough being gradually pushed out as a mid-level ridge builds across most of the southern US. The pattern for hot days and diurnally driven sea-breeze convection will remain, with deep tropical moisture allowing for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. One thing that will change from early in the week is low-level winds over South Florida will turn more south-southwesterly for mid to late week, shifting the focus of the sea-breeze convection more over the interior and East Coast metro. Localized flooding will continue to be a concern due to repeated rounds of heavy rainfall as well as slow storm motions. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, with heat index values routinely reaching the triple digits each day, with some pockets reaching the 105 to 110 range by late in the week and over the weekend. Overnight lows will also remain warm, generally in the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 107 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Mainly VFR to start the 06Z TAF period with light and variable winds. Winds after 16Z will be westerly 5-10 kts, with a lot of uncertainty regarding the east coast sea breeze. The only sites currently forecast to have an easterly flow in the afternoon is PBI and FLL, but will monitor and amend during the day if necessary. SCT showers and storms may result in brief flight restrictions, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will continue across the local waters today. These winds will gradually veer and become south to southwesterly starting on Tuesday and continuing through the end of the work-week. Seas across the Atlantic will remain at 3 feet or less while seas across the Gulf remain at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the local waters each day and could result in locally higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 77 91 77 / 60 50 70 40 West Kendall 90 75 91 75 / 60 40 60 30 Opa-Locka 91 77 91 77 / 60 50 70 40 Homestead 90 76 90 76 / 60 40 60 30 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 89 77 / 70 50 70 40 N Ft Lauderdale 90 77 90 77 / 70 50 70 40 Pembroke Pines 92 78 93 78 / 70 50 70 40 West Palm Beach 90 76 91 76 / 70 50 70 40 Boca Raton 91 76 91 76 / 70 50 70 40 Naples 88 79 89 79 / 60 40 60 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....RAG AVIATION...CMF