Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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795 FXUS62 KMFL 241737 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 137 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 109 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Mid-lvl ridging will remain positioned over the area for one more day maintaining warm temperatures aloft, a layer of mid-lvl dry air, and synoptic subsidence over South Florida. Rain chances will be limited to isolated-scattered coastal convergence showers over the east coast (the best set-up for this looks to be this AM over Palm Beach county), and scattered thunderstorms over SW Florida this afternoon as the synoptic easterly flow encounters the nearly pinned Gulf breeze. Seasonably warm temperatures can be expected with highs in the low 90s near the east coast and mid 90s over Interior and SW Florida. We will begin to see the first fringe impacts from PTC 9 over SFL tonight into Wednesday as deep tropical moisture begins to advect northward, as evidenced by PWATs increasing over 2.2 inches by Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances will increase from north to south tonight (although likely confined to the waters and coastal regions), with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected during the day on Wednesday. Additionally southeasterly winds will become increasingly breezy with gusts 25 to 30mph Wednesday afternoon. However the circulation of the developing system should remain far enough to our east that a wash-out does not look likely, and the most significant impacts from the system likely will likely hold off until the long-term period. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 As we move into the latter portion of the week, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (PTC9) will continue to develop and strengthen as it moves further into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and fuels off the warm waters. As this occurs, deep tropical moisture will push into the region which will increase the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday through Friday and bring the potential for flooding rains further into the region. Moderate confidence continues for the potential for heavy rainfall and some flooding concerns during this time frame. The latest WPC excessive rainfall outlooks keeps a majority of South FL as a marginal risk (Level 1 out of 4) through Friday, and a slight risk (Level 2 out of 4) for the west coast on Thursday. As far as rainfall amounts are concerned, uncertainty still remains and will depend on the exact track of the system. If the storm were to track further to the east, this would increase the rainfall totals across the region. However, a track further to the west would decrease these totals. In general, rainfall amounts from late Wednesday through Friday evening look to range from 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts, especially across the Gulf coast region (5"+). This will continue to be monitored with the days ahead. As PTC9 progresses, forecasts indicate that it may bring the potential for tropical storm force winds to the coastal Collier and Mainland Monroe counties. There is a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the for those portions of South FL with possible sustained winds 30-40 mph and gusts up to 50 mph. While not as strong winds to be felt throughout the interior and SE FL, conditions will remain windy regionwide bringing the potential for wind advisories, likely Thursday, but this will depend on strengthening and track taken. Updates will be made as time requires. With the increased cloud cover for the latter half of the week, high temperatures will trend cooler with highs keeping to the mid to upper 80s. Heading into the upcoming weekend, the latest guidance suite is hinting at mid-level ridge building over the area on Saturday and Sunday. At the surface, southwesterly wind flow will help to keep deep layer moisture advection in place as the moisture tail from what is left of PTC 9 could remain parked over the region. With an abundance of moisture across the region, this could keep the enhanced chances of showers and thunderstorms in place during this time frame. Uncertainty remains high in this part of the forecast as well as it will be dependent on exactly where this moisture tail sets up. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. With southwesterly wind flow in place, high temperatures will generally range from the upper 80s across Southwest Florida to the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Winds will remain out of the ESE at 10 to 15 kts this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will form mostly over the interior sections this afternoon away from the east coast terminals. Rain chances will begin to ramp up overnight and into the day on Wednesday. Winds will increase out of the SE early Wednesday morning and could gust to 25 kts as the morning progresses. && .MARINE... Issued at 109 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Easterly winds will become fresh over the waters today as the gradient strengthens to the north of PTC 9 in the NW Caribbean. Winds and seas will then turn hazardous on Wednesday as the disturbance intensifies and lifts northward into the SE GOM, with tropical storm conditions possible over the Gulf waters and Gale conditions possible on the Atlantic waters on Thursday. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will also increase Wednesday into the late-week period. && .BEACHES... Issued at 109 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Minor coastal flooding will remain possible over the east coast today but should generally be spotty as astronomical tides decrease. Moderate to major coastal flooding can be expected over the Gulf coast late Wednesday into Thursday as PTC 9 strengthens and tracks through the SE Gulf of Mexico. Strengthening onshore flow will result in an extended period of high rip current risk over the east coast (likely through the workweek), with potentially hazardous surf developing over the Palm Beaches in the mid-week period. Additionally hazardous beach conditions look likely over the Gulf coast beaches starting Thursday as surf increases in association with PTC9. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 89 79 89 / 60 80 90 80 West Kendall 78 89 79 90 / 60 80 90 80 Opa-Locka 80 90 79 90 / 50 80 90 80 Homestead 79 89 79 89 / 60 90 90 80 Fort Lauderdale 80 88 79 88 / 50 80 90 80 N Ft Lauderdale 80 89 79 90 / 50 80 80 80 Pembroke Pines 81 91 79 91 / 50 80 80 80 West Palm Beach 79 89 79 90 / 40 80 80 80 Boca Raton 80 89 79 90 / 50 70 80 80 Naples 79 90 78 87 / 40 90 90 90 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday morning for FLZ063-066-069-070. Storm Surge Watch for FLZ069-075. Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ069-075. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carr LONG TERM....JS AVIATION...CWC