Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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148 FXUS62 KMFL 171743 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 143 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A band of enhanced moisture on the leading edge of a westward moving low-mid level shortwave trough will move across southern and western sections of the area, mainly from the Miami area westward to Collier County. This area will continue to have the higher rain chances this afternoon, decreasing from east to west through the late afternoon hours. Rainfall amounts generally from a quarter to a third of an inch can be expected, with localized amounts of a half-inch or slightly higher. A few thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon, with enough diurnal instability characterized by CAPE values around 2000 j/kg in the aforementioned areas. Drier air depicted in derived GOES Total Precipitable Water data (values less than 1.5 inches) over the Bahamas are poised to move over the southern Florida peninsula area on the back side of the shortwave trough this afternoon, leading to a mainly dry afternoon and evening over most areas. A rather tight pressure gradient from surface high pressure building from the western North Atlantic will lead to breezy east winds gusting to around 25 mph this afternoon and early this evening. Mostly dry conditions are expected to begin Tuesday as the axis of the relatively dry air should be over South Florida. However, as the day progresses we expect moisture levels to increase ahead of a quick-moving low level trough embedded in the fresh easterly wind flow, with scattered west-moving showers and thunderstorms becoming more common during the second half of the day. Highest PoPs (50-60%)are in the Palm Beach County where the area of higher moisture values are expected to arrive Tuesday afternoon, with generally 30-40% PoPs elsewhere. Breezy east winds will continue, although perhaps slightly less so than today. As far as temperatures go, went on the higher end of the NBM temperature distribution, with near 90 east coast and mid 90s west coast. Heat index values will approach 105F in the Naples area this afternoon. The presence of the drier air at least for the first half of tomorrow will lower heat index values slightly, although high temperatures should still range from near 90 east to the mid 90s western interior and Gulf coast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 For the middle to the end of the week, a strong mid to upper level ridge will remain parked over the Mid-Atlantic states. At the same time, a mid level inverted trough will try to close off into a low in the western Atlantic as it moves west northwestward. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure may try to develop north of the Bahamas as it pushes west northwestward. The National Hurricane Center currently gives this disturbance a 30 percent chance of development as it moves towards the Southeastern coast. Forecast uncertainty remains very high for this part of the forecast as the mid level ridge and surface high pressure centered off to the north will play an important role in steering this disturbance. The guidance still remains in disagreement as far as where this system will track and if it actually develops or not. Regardless of development, deep layer tropical moisture will begin to spread back into the region beginning on Wednesday and lasting through the end of the week. This will increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide during this time frame. While the exact details still remain very uncertain due to differences in guidance, the potential for heavy downpours for the middle to the end of the week will lead to the potential for localized flooding concerns to return to portions of South Florida. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures for the middle to the end of the week will generally remain in the upper 80s across the east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida. Heading into the upcoming weekend, uncertainty will still remain very high as this is towards the end of the forecast period and will remain dependent on the track and timing of the tropical disturbance in the western Atlantic. Chances of showers and thunderstorms may still remain elevated during this time frame with the potential for deep tropical moisture to remain over the region. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures for the weekend will remain in the upper 80s along the east coast to lower 90s across the interior sections. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Scattered SHRA mainly affecting MIA area terminals through 20z with brief MVFR ceilings and/or visibility, then potentially also affecting KAPF area through 00z. A few TSRA are possible over the interior through 00z, but too few in coverage to mention in TAFs. VFR conditions will prevail after 00z and through the first half of the day on Tuesday. Winds 080-090 degrees 15g25 kt through 02z, then again gusting around 20 knots after 14z Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Moderate to fresh easterly winds persisting through mid-week will build seas to 5-7 feet over the Atlantic waters Tuesday night and Wednesday, and 3-5 feet over the Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisory will continue through Tuesday, and likely be extended through Wednesday. Some slight decrease in the E-SE winds for the end of the week is expected to lead to lower seas to end the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will periodically affect the local waters, becoming more numerous Tuesday night and continuing through the remainder of the week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The moderate to fresh easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic beaches for most of the rest of the week. Surf will pick up to around 3-4 feet Tuesday and Wednesday at the Palm Beach and Broward county beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 90 80 88 / 20 40 50 50 West Kendall 77 91 77 89 / 20 40 40 60 Opa-Locka 79 92 79 89 / 10 40 50 50 Homestead 79 89 79 87 / 20 40 40 50 Fort Lauderdale 80 89 80 86 / 10 50 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 80 90 79 87 / 10 50 50 50 Pembroke Pines 80 90 80 89 / 10 40 50 50 West Palm Beach 77 90 77 87 / 10 60 50 60 Boca Raton 79 90 79 87 / 10 50 50 50 Naples 76 94 77 92 / 10 40 20 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ SHORT TERM/Marine/Beaches...Molleda LONG TERM....CMF AVIATION...Molleda