282
FXUS62 KMFL 241844
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
244 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Typical summertime conditions will be on tap for South Florida
today, with chances for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
throughout the day. Sounding date from the 12Z MFL launch and ACARS
flights show moderate instability and lapse rates in place across
the area, with a very warm and moist air column up to 500mb (PWATs
of 2.15 inches). The combination of these factors - along with some
dynamic support from a subtle upper level disturbance over the
area - has allowed for a few isolated low-topped showers along the
Atlantic waters and East Coast sea breeze already. Activity will
continue through the afternoon, with convection over the East
Coast very gradually shifting inland and towards the interior and southwest
FL. Storm motion will remain slow with weak winds in the low to
mid levels, which could lead to localized flooding concerns for
poor drainage areas or locations that see multiple rounds of
storms. Overnight showers and thunderstorms will be possible,
primarily over the Atlantic waters and the East Coast metro.

The overall synoptic and mesoscale setup will not change much on
Tuesday aside from the upper level disturbance shifting eastward.
Winds at the surface will shift from the south-southwest, so we can
expect another day of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly focused over the interior and
East Coast metro areas.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s today and
Tuesday, with afternoon heat indices around 100-105. Overnight lows
be warm, dropping to the mid 70s over the inland areas and upper 70s
to low 80s closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The unsettled weather pattern persists as a mid-level trough
dives across the Midwest into the Southeast US on Wednesday and
Thursday, retaining a weak trough over South Florida through the
end of the week. The weak flow will keep the deep tropical
moisture in place over the area, with PWAT values in excess of 2
inches expected each day. By this weekend, guidance continues to
be in good agreement on the mid-level trough being gradually
pushed out as a mid-level ridge builds across most of the
southern US.

The pattern for hot days and diurnally driven sea-breeze
convection will remain, with deep tropical moisture allowing for
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. One
thing that will change from early in the week is low-level winds
over South Florida will turn more south-southwesterly for mid to
late week, shifting the focus of the sea-breeze convection more
over the interior and East Coast metro. Localized flooding will
continue to be a concern due to repeated rounds of heavy rainfall
as well as slow storm motions. High temperatures will remain in
the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, with heat index values
routinely reaching the triple digits each day, with some pockets
reaching the 105 to 110 range by late in the week and over the
weekend. Overnight lows will also remain warm, generally in the
mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions could be possible for all sites
today as slow-moving SHRA/TSRA develop. ESE flow at around 10 kts
will persist through the evening, becoming light and variable
overnight. Winds become more SSW tomorrow at 5-10 knots with
chances of SHRA/TSRA once again for the East Coast in the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will continue across
the local waters today. These winds will gradually veer and
become south to southwesterly starting on Tuesday and continuing
through the end of the work-week. Seas across the Atlantic will
remain at 3 feet or less while seas across the Gulf remain at 2
feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the local waters each day and could result in locally
higher winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  90  77  91 /  40  60  40  70
West Kendall     75  91  75  91 /  40  60  30  70
Opa-Locka        77  91  77  91 /  30  60  40  70
Homestead        75  90  77  91 /  40  60  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  77  89  77  89 /  30  60  40  70
N Ft Lauderdale  77  91  77  90 /  30  60  40  70
Pembroke Pines   78  92  78  93 /  30  60  40  70
West Palm Beach  76  90  76  91 /  20  60  30  70
Boca Raton       76  91  77  91 /  30  60  40  70
Naples           78  89  79  89 /  40  60  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...ATV