617
FXUS62 KMFL 171310 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
910 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A band of showers on the leading edge of a westward moving low-
mid level shortwave trough will continue to move onshore
primarily across Miami-Dade County this morning, then over the
Everglades and portions of Collier County this afternoon. Drier
air depicted in derived GOES Total Precipitable Water data
(values less than 1.5 inches) over the Bahamas this morning will
move across the southern Florida peninsula area on the back side
of the shortwave trough, leading to a decrease in precipitation
from east to west as the day progresses. Rainfall amounts
generally from a quarter to a third of an inch can be expected,
with localized amounts of a half-inch or slightly higher. A few
thunderstorms are also expected, mainly later this morning through
the afternoon, with enough diurnal instability characterized by
CAPE values around 2000 j/kg.

Forecast PoPs have been updated through early afternoon to reflect
higher rain chances across Miami-Dade County, Mainland Monroe, and
Collier counties.

Breezy east winds today will lead to a high risk of rip currents
at the Atlantic beaches today (and likely for most of the week).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

As we move into the new week, the ridging and surface high to our
north will expand and strengthen. This will tighten the pressure
gradient across the southern FL Peninsula leading to breezy easterly
winds in the region as we move into the day, Monday. Additionally,
this will usher some drier air in the mid-levels which will bring a
decrease in PWAT values (~1.2-1.6). There is potential for isolated
to scattered showers (20%) across the eastern coast late this
morning, before movement inland and to the Gulf as the easterly
winds strengthen throughout the day. The best chance for showers,
and an isolated thunderstorm, will be across the interior and SW
Florida (30-40%). Tuesday will be heavily influenced by high
pressure`s influence, leading to the drier air and strong easterly
winds all day Tuesday. The potential for light showers and an
isolated thunderstorm will continue during the day with the best
chance for rain to occur near the coast lines and over the open
waters.

During the short term period, temperatures will follow a typical
easterly regime, ranging from the upper 80s near the immediate east
coast, to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the middle to the end of the week, a strong mid to upper level
ridge will remain parked over the Mid-Atlantic states. At the same
time, a mid level inverted trough will try to close off into a low
in the western Atlantic as it moves west northwestward. At the
surface, a broad area of low pressure may try to develop north of
the Bahamas as it pushes west northwestward. The National Hurricane
Center currently gives this disturbance a 30 percent chance of
development as it moves towards the Southeastern coast.

Forecast uncertainty remains very high for this part of the forecast
as the mid level ridge and surface high pressure centered off to the
north will play an important role in steering this disturbance. The
guidance still remains in disagreement as far as where this system
will track and if it actually develops or not. Regardless of
development, deep layer tropical moisture will begin to spread back
into the region beginning on Wednesday and lasting through the end
of the week. This will increase the chances of showers and
thunderstorms area wide during this time frame. While the exact
details still remain very uncertain due to differences in guidance,
the potential for heavy downpours for the middle to the end of the
week will lead to the potential for localized flooding concerns to
return to portions of South Florida. This will continue to be
monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures for the middle
to the end of the week will generally remain in the upper 80s across
the east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida.

Heading into the upcoming weekend, uncertainty will still remain
very high as this is towards the end of the forecast period and will
remain dependent on the track and timing of the tropical disturbance
in the western Atlantic. Chances of showers and thunderstorms may
still remain elevated during this time frame with the potential for
deep tropical moisture to remain over the region. This will continue
to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures for the
weekend will remain in the upper 80s along the east coast to lower
90s across the interior sections.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Scattered SHRA moving onshore SE Florida in moderate E winds will
likely lead to brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities for some east
coast TAF sites, with short-duration TEMPO groups possibly
required. Most of the SHRA will shift to interior and SW Florida
after 18z, possibly approaching KAPF during this time frame. TSRA
chances are too low to mention in TAFs at this time. Winds
080-090 degrees near 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots through
about 00z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Moderate easterly wind flow across the local waters become moderate
to fresh as we head into the start of the new week. Easterly wind
flow will continue to strengthen heading into the middle of the week
which could lead to the potential for hazardous marine conditions
during this time frame across the Atlantic and Gulf waters. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for the Atlantic Waters today through
Tuesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the local waters each day. Winds and seas could be locally
higher in and around showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A high risk of rip currents is in effect for the Atlantic coast
beaches through mid-week due to onshore easterly flow. The risk
remains low for the Gulf beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  79  88  80 /  40  20  40  50
West Kendall     91  76  90  77 /  30  20  40  40
Opa-Locka        89  79  90  79 /  40  20  40  50
Homestead        89  79  89  79 /  30  20  40  40
Fort Lauderdale  88  80  87  80 /  20  20  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  89  79  87  79 /  20  20  40  50
Pembroke Pines   89  80  91  80 /  30  20  40  50
West Palm Beach  90  78  88  77 /  20  20  50  50
Boca Raton       90  79  88  79 /  20  20  40  50
Naples           94  76  94  77 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Tuesday
     for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM....CWC
UPDATE/AVIATION...Molleda