570
FXUS62 KMFL 250657
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
257 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Typical summertime conditions will continue across South Florida
through mid-week, with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day. These are being fueled by deep tropical
moisture (PWAT values of 2-2.3) pooled over the area, as well as
diurnal heating, moderate instability, and subtle mid-level
troughing. Low-level winds will be weak and out of the south to
southwest, which will generally lead to a convective regime of
showers and thunderstorms initiating along sea breeze boundaries
late in the morning, and then moving towards the interior and East
Coast metro during the afternoon and early evening hours. The low
to mid level wind fields will be quite weak overall, leading to
slow storm motions and localized flooding concerns in poor
drainage areas or locations that see multiple rounds of storms. A
few storms could also become strong, capable of producing frequent
lightning and gusty winds.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s today and
Wednesday, with afternoon heat indices around 100-105. Overnight
lows be warm, dropping to the mid 70s over the inland areas and
upper 70s to low 80s closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Overall, the weather pattern of hot days and diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms will continue through the long term
period. In the mid-levels, weak troughing will linger over the
region through Friday, sitting in a lull between two ridges over
the South-Central US and eastern Caribbean, as well as troughing
over the US eastern seaboard. Over the weekend, the mid-level
troughing will be gradually pushed out as the mid-level ridging
builds and shifts east over the northern Gulf states.

With this synoptic setup, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day. Low-level winds will be out of the
southwest through Friday, keeping the pattern of convection
initiating along sea-breeze boundaries before moving over the
interior and East Coast metro during the afternoon and early
evening. By this weekend, winds will flip to out of the southeast,
shifting the convective pattern to focus over the interior and
Gulf Coast during the afternoon. Overall weak winds in the low to
mid levels will continue to result in slow storm motions and
localized flooding concerns for areas that are hit repeatedly or
have poor drainage. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s
to low 90s across the area, with heat index values routinely
reaching the triple digits each day, with some pockets reaching
the 105 to 110 range by late in the week and over the weekend.
Overnight lows will also remain warm, generally in the mid 70s to
low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Mainly VFR to start the 06Z TAF period with light and variable
winds. Winds after 16Z will be westerly 5-10 kts, with a lot of
uncertainty regarding the east coast sea breeze. The only sites
currently forecast to have an easterly flow in the afternoon is
PBI and FLL, but will monitor and amend during the day if
necessary. SCT showers and storms may result in brief flight
restrictions, especially during the afternoon and early evening
hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Winds will turn to a gentle south to southwesterly flow today and
remain that way for most of the week, resulting in generally
benign conditions. Both Atlantic and Gulf seas will be quite
smooth at generally 1 foot or less. The one exception to the
relatively calm marine conditions will be the potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to create locally higher winds
and seas each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  77  91  77 /  60  50  70  30
West Kendall     90  75  91  74 /  60  40  60  20
Opa-Locka        91  77  91  76 /  60  50  70  30
Homestead        90  76  90  76 /  60  40  60  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  77  89  77 /  70  50  70  30
N Ft Lauderdale  90  77  90  77 /  70  50  70  30
Pembroke Pines   92  78  93  78 /  70  50  70  30
West Palm Beach  90  76  91  76 /  70  50  70  30
Boca Raton       91  76  91  76 /  70  50  70  30
Naples           88  79  89  79 /  60  40  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...CMF