875
FXUS62 KMFL 231728
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
128 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Mid-level ridging across the Gulf Coast states and the Southeast
will slowly start to break down as an amplifying mid-level trough
dives down across the Great Lakes and into the eastern US. This will
cause the surface high in the western Atlantic to retreat further to
the east, which will weaken the east-to-southeasterly winds across
South Florida. With deep tropical moisture still in place (PWAT
values around 2.1-2.3"), scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected. Storm motion will once again be slow due
to the weak steering flow, however, convection initiating along the
East Coast early this afternoon will slowly try to push towards the
interior and Gulf Coast during the middle afternoon and evening
hours. With a bit more instability in place as well as the addition
of some mid to upper level forcing as the ridge starts to break
down, some strong thunderstorms with gusty winds cannot be ruled out
later in the afternoon. The primary concern with the storms today is
that they will be slow-moving, which will increase the potential for
localized flooding, especially for areas that get hit repeatedly,
have poor drainage, or are already saturated from heavy rainfall
yesterday. High temperatures will generally rise into the upper 80s
and lower 90s across most areas, with heat indices around the low
100s. While overall convection will not be as widespread, showers
and storms will still be around tonight, primarily over the Atlantic
waters and along the East Coast metro.

On Monday, the mid-level troughing will continue to dive down across
the eastern US, pushing out any influence of mid-level ridging over
South Florida. The surface high over the Atlantic will weaken
further, resulting in very weak southeasterly winds across our area.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will again develop
across the area due to the deep tropical moisture in place and
enhanced instability from the mid-level trough. Storm motion will
remain slow, continuing to lead to localized flooding concerns for
poor drainage areas or locations that see multiple rounds of storms.
High temperatures will again be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with
heat indices around 100-105.
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The unsettled weather pattern will continue in the long term
period as mid-level troughing persists over the eastern seaboard
of the US. The trough axis will deamplify a bit on Tuesday, but
additional moisture will stream in over South Florida. A
reinforcing trough will push into the Southeast US on Wednesday
into Thursday, while another burst of tropical moisture moves
across the Caribbean to close out the week.

Overall, the pattern for hot days and diurnally driven sea-breeze
convection will remain, but the additional bursts of tropical
moisture and presence of low pressure around the region will allow
for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day.
Localized flooding will continue to be a concern due to repeated
rounds of heavy rainfall as well as slow storm motions. Overnight
temperatures, particularly along the East Coast metro areas where
weak onshore flow persists, will struggle to drop below 80 most
nights this week. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s
to low 90s across the area, with heat index values routinely
reaching the triple digits each day, with some pockets reaching
105 to 108 range by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop around
east coast sites this afternoon. Outside of storms, winds will be
E/SE around 10 kts, with a brief westerly Gulf breeze at APF
after 18Z. Brief flight restrictions will be possible in/near
thunderstorms today in the form of lower ceilings and
visibilities. &&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue
across the local waters through the rest of the weekend and into
early this week. These winds will gradually veer and become more
southerly by the middle portion of the week. Seas across the
Atlantic will remain at 3 feet or less while seas across the Gulf
remain at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the local waters each day and could result in
locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

There will be a moderate risk for rip currents today along the
Atlantic beaches as onshore flow persists. The risk will drop lower
early in the week as the onshore flow weakens.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  88  78  90 /  50  60  30  70
West Kendall     76  90  76  90 /  50  60  30  70
Opa-Locka        78  90  77  90 /  50  60  30  70
Homestead        77  88  77  89 /  50  70  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  78  87  78  88 /  50  60  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  78  88  78  89 /  50  60  30  60
Pembroke Pines   78  91  79  92 /  50  60  30  60
West Palm Beach  76  89  76  90 /  50  60  20  60
Boca Raton       78  90  77  90 /  50  60  30  60
Naples           76  90  77  90 /  60  70  40  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver/Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Rizzuto