![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
221 FXUS62 KMFL 181903 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 303 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 South Florida remains situated in a region of weak synoptic ascent as expansive mid-level ridging remains entrenched across the region and the western Atlantic waters. At the surface, an expansive ridge of high pressure continues to advect into the region resulting in breezy to gusty easterlies prevailing across South Florida. Drier air over the western Atlantic continues to pivot in, resulting in relatively low rain chances in the forecast for today. Mesoanalysis indicates a north to south PWAT/CAPE gradient across the region with the most conducive values for convection to the south of our region over the Florida Keys. Miami (KMIA) ACARS data from 16:20 UTC shows the large column of dry air from 925mb up quite nicely. Any shower activity that may develop today will be relatively shallow in vertical extent with limited convective scope. Given the breezy easterly flow, temperatures will be quite comfortable along the immediate east coast with high temperatures in the middle 80s. Elsewhere, temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast for the majority of the region with the exception of the inland locales of the Gulf coast metro area that could reach the middle 90s. With the continued advection of easterly flow across the region, a higher concentration of moisture will pivot into South Florida as the surface ridge remains in firm control. The higher moisture content will result in slightly increased rain chances across the region with high temperatures a little cooler given an increase in cloud cover and convection. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 349 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The primary feature to watch for in the latter half of the week continues to be a disturbance several hundred miles east of the Bahamas associated with a surface trough. The latest tropical outlook (06Z) by the National Hurricane Center indicates this feature has a low end chance (20%) of developing tropical characteristics over the next 7 days. We continue to keep an eye on potential development of the surface low. Regardless, there will be a surge of moisture into South Florida late this week bringing higher chances of daily showers and scattered thunderstorms in the extended forecast (50-70%). The ensembles forecast a rise in PWATs, with a majority of members pushing 2"+, starting Thursday into the weekend. Therefore, formation of a tropical disturbance or not, we have an active, wet week and weekend ahead of us with the potential for rainfall and thunderstorms across South Florida. Due to the substantial rainfall last week, the ground is heavily saturated and urban areas sensitive to heavy rain. While the forecast QPF values are relatively low, any quick, heavy showers may lead to flooding in areas recently impacted. With the persistent easterly flow, temperatures will be seasonal for the remainder of the week and weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s regionwide. Overnight lows will drop into the 70s for a majority of South FL, other than the east coast which will keep to the low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 302 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Mid-upper level ridging dominates the eastern seaboard to open the long term period. This feature will continue to build westward into the central United States heading into the weekend. As a result, easterly flow will continue across South Florida for the end of the week and through the weekend. PWATs will remain around 1.5-1.7" on Thursday and Friday so thinking less convective coverage each afternoon as the slightly drier air persists, although the area will not remain completely dry. Heading into the weekend, the middle atmosphere could moisten a bit again with modeled PWATs approaching 2"-2.1" and more numerous activity is expected. and With easterly flow, it is likely to see weaker showers impacting the east coast areas in the morning with more widespread rainfall affecting the rest of South Florida during the afternoon. At this time, both the GFS and EURO have backed off just a touch on the moisture potential for the weekend and am comfortable at holding POPs between 50-70%. These ma need to be adjusted as conditions become clearer closer to the weekend. Early next week, an upper level low will come barreling across the Great Lakes region as overall high pressure over the eastern CONUS breaks down, and is nudged back eastward. This will lead to the development of a more southeasterly to southerly flow across the area for the Monday afternoon through Wednesday time period as another weak frontal boundary stalls across the SE CONUS. Models are hinting at another moisture surge towards the end of the period with the return of southerly flow , but this is too far out to speculate much at this time - just something we will keep an eye on through the remainder of this week. Temperatures through this long term period will be fairly consistent. Afternoon highs are expected to top out in the upper 80s to low 90s each day and overnight lows dipping into the mid- upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Breezy easterly flow continues across South Florida this afternoon with mostly VFR conditions expected outside of isolated shower activity. Have removed VCSH out of most of the east coast terminal sites given the current environment. That being said, if an isolated shower does impact a terminal, a brief bout of MVFR cigs could be realized. && .MARINE... Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Expect moderate to breezy easterly winds to prevail through mid week, along with seas up to 7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and up to 5 feet over the Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic and Biscayne Bay waters through until at least Wednesday morning. Some slight decrease in the E-SE winds for the end of the week is expected to lead to lower seas to end the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will periodically affect the local waters, becoming more numerous through the remainder of the work week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Continued easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents across all the Atlantic beaches during the rest of the work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 88 78 88 / 30 40 50 50 West Kendall 78 88 77 90 / 30 50 50 50 Opa-Locka 79 88 78 89 / 30 40 50 50 Homestead 80 87 79 88 / 30 50 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 80 86 79 86 / 40 40 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 80 87 79 88 / 40 40 50 50 Pembroke Pines 80 90 79 91 / 30 40 50 50 West Palm Beach 78 87 77 88 / 40 50 50 50 Boca Raton 79 88 78 88 / 40 40 50 50 Naples 77 92 76 93 / 10 50 30 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hadi LONG TERM....Rizzuto AVIATION...Hadi