711
FXUS62 KMFL 141750
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
150 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A frontal boundary remains draped across central Florida, while a
mid-level trough sits across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The
plume of enhanced moisture which sat over South FL for the past
couple of days has shifted southward this morning, with the main
bulk of it now sitting over the FL Keys. This has allowed for
drier mid-level air to filter in over the area as shown by the
ACARS and 12Z MFL soundings. As a result, much of the convection
early this morning has been confined to the FL Keys/Straits and
southern portions of the CWA.

This will be the prevailing pattern of behavior for the rest of the
day as scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across South FL.
Coverage will not be as widespread as previous days, but
increased daytime heating as a result of decreased cloud coverage
will help destabilize the atmosphere enough to support
thunderstorm development and some heavy downpours. Guidance
suggests some areas could see between 1-2" of rain, with localized
higher amounts possible through the day which could trigger
concerns for flash flooding, especially for vulnerable areas that
received several inches of rain over the past several days.

Heading into Saturday, the mid level trough axis will remain
near the region. At the surface, while Invest AL90 will move
further away to the northeast in the western Atlantic, South
Florida will still be close enough to the moisture tail to support
higher end chances of showers and thunderstorms. The latest
guidance still shows PWAT values ranging between 2.0 and 2.3
inches throughout the day on Saturday. This is more than enough
moisture to support shower and thunderstorm development as the day
progresses. The highest chances will remain in the afternoon
hours and heavy downpours will still be possible with the
strongest thunderstorms. This would create the potential for
additional flooding concerns depending on where the stronger
storms set up. This will continue to be monitored as the day
progresses.

High temperatures today and tomorrow could reach the upper 80s
areas across the northern CWA where cloud coverage will be most
limited, with temperatures further south where the rain chances
are maximized reaching the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

This weekend: An upper level trough will still be the dominant
synoptic feature over the area and it will come into phase with an
amplifying trough over the eastern United States and Canada. As the
surface low off the Southeast United States moves to the northeast,
surface flow across South Florida will become easterly by Sunday
afternoon which will be the start of a return to normalcy. Modeled
PWATs will still remain at or above 2 inches Saturday and Sunday,
which is at or above the 90th percentile for this time of year. It
is possible we remain in the `moisture tail` of the surface low
through the weekend, with the most enhanced moisture draped across
far southern portions of the area. Showers and storms are likely
each day through the weekend before drier air finally begins to
filter across the area on Monday. As the low continues to push
further and further away from South Florida, the coverage of showers
and storms is not expected to be as widespread or numerous as what
we experienced earlier this week. Still, given the extremely wet
conditions this week, the Flood Watch may need to be extended into
the weekend.

Early next week: Surface high pressure will build across the region
again late Sunday into Monday which should return us to a more
typical summertime easterly regime. This will allow the eastern sea
breeze to progress relatively far inland and keep the best chances
for showers and storms across interior South Florida and Southwest
Florida each afternoon.

Highs through the period will be in the upper 80s with heat indices
in the upper 90s to lower 100s. With the return of the easterly
regime, Southwest Florida will experience slightly warmer

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

MVFR/IFR will be likely across East Coast terminals over the next
couple of hours as scattered SHRA/TSRA roll through. Southwesterly
winds will prevail, but an easterly sea breeze may try to impinge
on the East Coast sites once convection clears out. Light and
variable winds overnight with mostly dry conditions, before a
return to southwesterly flow and VCTS tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A moderate to fresh southwesterly wind flow will remain in place
across the local waters today. These winds will become gentle to
moderate for the upcoming weekend and they will gradually shift
and become east northeasterly on Sunday. Seas across the Atlantic
and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through
the upcoming weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
still be possible today and into the upcoming weekend. Winds and
waves may be locally higher in and around showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  86  78  88 /  40  60  30  60
West Kendall     74  88  75  90 /  30  60  30  60
Opa-Locka        76  89  78  90 /  40  60  20  60
Homestead        76  87  77  89 /  30  50  30  60
Fort Lauderdale  77  85  78  87 /  40  60  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  77  86  78  88 /  40  60  30  60
Pembroke Pines   77  89  78  90 /  40  60  20  60
West Palm Beach  75  87  76  88 /  40  60  20  60
Boca Raton       76  87  78  88 /  40  60  30  60
Naples           78  87  77  91 /  60  60  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC/ATV
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...ATV