Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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951 FXUS62 KMFL 171809 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 209 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A deep-layered area of low pressure continues to sit over the southeastern United States with an associated frontal boundary sagging south across the peninsula of Florida. This setup will remain over the region through mid-week which will lead to a more unsettled pattern but mitigate the heat risk compared to previous days. Thunderstorms on both days could see some enhanced support from an upper level jet and some periods with a healthy low level jet. Ample moisture will allow for convective coverage and PoPs to remain above climatological norms for this time of year with more activity than just a normal sea breeze thunderstorm day. Boundary collisions and sea breeze interactions could provide some lower level enhancement that could lead to strong to isolated severe thunderstorms. Strong to locally damaging winds and localized flooding from excessive rainfall continue to be the main concerns. Temperatures will be warm but heat index values will not be as hot as in recent days. The extra cloud cover could help limit the fast-pace of diurnal heating in the mornings and reinforced cold pools in the wake of convection could provide some brief periods of relatively cooler temperatures. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 With the continued propagation on the mid-level low across the northeastern United States and western Atlantic waters, 500mb flow over the region will remain out of a light northwesterly direction on Thursday and Friday. Like a broken record, the pesky stationary boundary over will remain to the north of the region resulting in light winds at the surface. The mesoscale phenomenon will once again dictate where convection develops and propagates with the northwesterly flow favoring the Atlantic sea-breeze for convective initiation each afternoon. 500mb temperatures will remain in the -6C to -7C range as we remain on the periphery of the influence of the departing mid-level low/troughing. By this weekend, the influences of mid-level ridging across the central United States will gradually nose into the region. Model guidance hints at the potential of a surge of drier mid-level air into the region which may act to limit spatial coverage of convection this weekend. Temperatures will remain near seasonal norms for this time of year with high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 currently forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Once the sea breezes develop and slowly advance inland, the highest risk for sub-VFR will be this afternoon into the early evening. Short-fused AMDs for IFR/LIFR may be necessary for directly impacted terminals. Light wind flow will prevail through much of the period turning onshore briefly with the sea breezes in the afternoon. Conditions should improve to VFR late evening into the overnight though some patchy inland fog/low stratus is possible. Shower and storm chances will increase on Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Generally light winds will prevail through most of this week as a weak surface boundary remains just to the north of the area. Seas across the northern Atlantic waters will gradually lessen as northerly swell declines through mid-week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the period and could lead to locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Decreasing northerly swell will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Palm Beaches once again today with a moderate risk of rip currents elsewhere on the east coast of South Florida. There will also be the continued potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding around periods of high tide due to astronomically higher tides associated with this full moon through mid-week. High Tide Times: * Naples: 1256 PM Tuesday, 125 AM Wednesday, 146 PM Wednesday * Lake Worth: 814 PM Tuesday, 838 AM Wednesday, 901 PM Wednesday * Port Everglades: 831 PM Tuesday, 858 AM Wednesday, 919 PM Wednesday * Virginia Key: 918 PM Tuesday, 945 AM Wednesday, 1004 pm Wednesday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 90 77 90 / 40 70 40 70 West Kendall 75 90 74 90 / 40 70 40 70 Opa-Locka 76 90 77 91 / 40 70 40 70 Homestead 76 90 76 90 / 40 70 40 70 Fort Lauderdale 77 89 77 89 / 40 60 40 70 N Ft Lauderdale 77 90 77 90 / 40 60 40 70 Pembroke Pines 77 92 77 92 / 40 70 40 70 West Palm Beach 76 91 77 90 / 40 60 40 70 Boca Raton 76 91 77 91 / 40 60 40 70 Naples 77 91 77 90 / 30 50 30 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ069-075- 168-172>174. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....Hadi AVIATION...RAG