546
FXUS62 KMFL 190534
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
134 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

No major changes to the near term forecast. Most will remain dry
overnight with some isolated showers possible along the east
coast. Rain chances start to increase along the metro around
sunrise. Overnight lows will range from the middle 70s over the
interior to around 80 close to the coasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

South Florida remains situated in a region of weak synoptic ascent
as expansive mid-level ridging remains entrenched across the region
and the western Atlantic waters. At the surface, an expansive ridge
of high pressure continues to advect into the region resulting in
breezy to gusty easterlies prevailing across South Florida. Drier
air over the western Atlantic continues to pivot in, resulting in
relatively low rain chances in the forecast for today. Mesoanalysis
indicates a north to south PWAT/CAPE gradient across the region with
the most conducive values for convection to the south of our region
over the Florida Keys. Miami (KMIA) ACARS data from 16:20 UTC shows
the large column of dry air from 925mb up quite nicely. Any
shower activity that may develop today will be relatively shallow
in vertical extent with limited convective scope. Given the breezy
easterly flow, temperatures will be quite comfortable along the
immediate east coast with high temperatures in the middle 80s.
Elsewhere, temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast
for the majority of the region with the exception of the inland
locales of the Gulf coast metro area that could reach the middle
90s.

With the continued advection of easterly flow across the region, a
higher concentration of moisture will pivot into South Florida as
the surface ridge remains in firm control. The higher moisture
content will result in slightly increased rain chances across the
region with high temperatures a little cooler given an increase in
cloud cover and convection. &&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The primary feature to watch for in the latter half of the week
continues to be a disturbance several hundred miles east of the
Bahamas associated with a surface trough. The latest tropical
outlook (06Z) by the National Hurricane Center indicates this
feature has a low end chance (20%) of developing tropical
characteristics over the next 7 days. We continue to keep an eye on
potential development of the surface low. Regardless, there will be
a surge of moisture into South Florida late this week bringing
higher chances of daily showers and scattered thunderstorms in the
extended forecast (50-70%). The ensembles forecast a rise in PWATs,
with a majority of members pushing 2"+, starting Thursday into the
weekend. Therefore, formation of a tropical disturbance or not, we
have an active, wet week and weekend ahead of us with the potential
for rainfall and thunderstorms across South Florida. Due to the
substantial rainfall last week, the ground is heavily saturated and
urban areas sensitive to heavy rain. While the forecast QPF values
are relatively low, any quick, heavy showers may lead to flooding in
areas recently impacted.

With the persistent easterly flow, temperatures will be seasonal for
the remainder of the week and weekend. High temperatures will be in
the upper 80s to low 90s regionwide. Overnight lows will drop into
the 70s for a majority of South FL, other than the east coast which
will keep to the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The primary feature to watch for in the latter half of the week
continues to be a disturbance several hundred miles east of the
Bahamas associated with a surface trough. The latest tropical
outlook (06Z) by the National Hurricane Center indicates this
feature has a low end chance (20%) of developing tropical
characteristics over the next 7 days. We continue to keep an eye on
potential development of the surface low. Regardless, there will be
a surge of moisture into South Florida late this week bringing
higher chances of daily showers and scattered thunderstorms in the
extended forecast (50-70%). The ensembles forecast a rise in PWATs,
with a majority of members pushing 2"+, starting Thursday into the
weekend. Therefore, formation of a tropical disturbance or not, we
have an active, wet week and weekend ahead of us with the potential
for rainfall and thunderstorms across South Florida. Due to the
substantial rainfall last week, the ground is heavily saturated and
urban areas sensitive to heavy rain. While the forecast QPF values
are relatively low, any quick, heavy showers may lead to flooding in
areas recently impacted.

With the persistent easterly flow, temperatures will be seasonal for
the remainder of the week and weekend. High temperatures will be in
the upper 80s to low 90s regionwide. Overnight lows will drop into
the 70s for a majority of South FL, other than the east coast which
will keep to the low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Although it won`t be impossible for a stray shower to move across
the area this morning, conditions in general should remain VFR
through around VFR through around 12z. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms is possible after 12Z, while easterly winds
become gusty. VCSH entered early Wednesday morning for the east
coast TAF sites and then VCTS after 16Z. After 21Z the convection
should focus more over the interior and SW FL so VCTS was entered
at APF after 21Z. Brief sub-VFR conditions are possible with the
strongest cells.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Expect moderate to breezy easterly winds to prevail through mid
week, along with seas up to 7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and up
to 5 feet over the Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
for the Atlantic and Biscayne Bay waters through until at least
Wednesday morning. Some slight decrease in the E-SE winds for the
end of the week is expected to lead to lower seas to end the week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will periodically affect the
local waters, becoming more numerous through the remainder of the
work week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Continued easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents
across all the Atlantic beaches during the rest of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  78  88  79 /  60  50  50  40
West Kendall     88  77  90  77 /  60  50  50  40
Opa-Locka        88  78  89  79 /  60  50  50  40
Homestead        88  79  88  79 /  60  50  50  40
Fort Lauderdale  87  79  86  79 /  60  50  50  40
N Ft Lauderdale  87  79  88  79 /  60  50  50  40
Pembroke Pines   90  79  91  80 /  60  50  50  40
West Palm Beach  87  77  88  77 /  60  50  50  30
Boca Raton       88  78  88  78 /  60  50  50  30
Naples           92  76  93  77 /  60  30  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...17