862
FXUS62 KMFL 230507
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
107 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Most of the showers and thunderstorms from earlier this afternoon
have either dissipated or are in the process of doing so, except
for an outflow boundary moving north over Palm Beach County which
will likely trigger a few showers or thunderstorms through about
10 PM or so.

Interior and Gulf coast areas will be mostly dry tonight, but over
the east coast metro areas and local Atlantic waters we expect
showers and scattered thunderstorms to redevelop after midnight as
a continued influx of moisture into the region will be
accompanied by localized coastal convergence of low level winds
and an axis of low level instability/high theta-e values. In
addition, a mid-level trough will linger along the Florida east
coast and contribute to the forcing for convection. With the high
levels of moisture and slow storm motion, localized flooding is a
possibility overnight into Sunday morning over the east coast
metro areas.

PoPs over the east coast metro and local Atlantic waters for
tonight were raised slightly from the previous forecast, mainly
in the 50-60% range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Strong mid level ridging remains centered over the Deep South this
afternoon while a weakness in this ridge remains in place on the
eastern side in the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure
in the western Atlantic extends back towards South Florida as a
weakening area of low pressure pushes into Southeastern Georgia.
With lack of any synoptic scale forcing, shower and thunderstorm
development will be sea breeze driven throughout the rest of today.
Deep tropical moisture continues to filter into the region as the
latest forecast soundings show PWAT values rising up to 2.1 to 2.3
inches later this afternoon. This will allow for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop this
afternoon and into this evening.

With a weak steering flow in place, storm motion will be slow this
afternoon. The general east to southeasterly wind flow will allow
for the east coast sea breeze to push further inland, shifting the
focus of convection over to the interior and west as the afternoon
progresses into the evening hours. Enough instability remains in
place with diurnal heating to support a strong thunderstorm or two
mainly over the interior sections this afternoon into the evening
containing gusty winds and heavy downpours. While most of the
convection will dissipate heading into the late evening hours over
land, additional shower and thunderstorm development will be
possible over the local waters as well as the as the east coast
overnight. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the
lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to around 80 across the
east coast metro areas.

Heading into Sunday, mid level ridging across the Gulf Coast states
and the Southeast will slowly start to break down as an amplifying
mid level trough dives down across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast. This will cause the surface high in the western Atlantic
to retreat further to the east which will weaken the east to
southeasterly wind flow across the region even further. With deep
tropical moisture still in place, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop once again along the sea breezes as they
push inland. Storm motion will once again be slow due to the weak
steering flow, however, convection will slowly try to push towards
the interior and west during the afternoon and evening hours. With a
bit more instability in place as well as the addition of some mid to
upper level forcing as the ridge starts to break down, some strong
thunderstorm development cannot be ruled out later in the afternoon.
The strongest storms could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours
with the highest chances remaining over the interior sections. High
temperatures will generally rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s
across most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The week kicks off with the continuation of the unsettled pattern as
the trough continues over the eastern seaboard of the United States.
On Monday, the amplified trough extending south into Florida will
come into phase with a plume of tropical moisture over the Greater
Antilles and southern Florida. The trough axis deamplifies as it
moves east on Tuesday as additional easterly moisture arrives over
southern Florida. A second trough amplifies as it enters the
southeastern United States on Wednesday into Thursday while another
burst of easterly tropical moisture moves across the Caribbean to
close out the week.

Overall, the pattern for hot days and diurnally driven convection
will remain but the additional bursts of tropical moisture and
presence of low pressure around the region could permit multiple
rounds of convection which could lead to localized flooding from
heavy rainfall in areas that become saturated. Overnight minimum
temperatures, particularly along the east coast metro areas where
onshore flow will persist, will struggle to drop below 80 for large
portions of the nights this week. Heat index values will routinely
reach the triple digits each day with some pockets reaching 105 to
108 range by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

SCT MVFR ceilings possible across the east coast metro early this
morning, with light and variable winds. SCT showers and
thunderstorms increase in coverage towards dawn for the east coast
terminals, with additional showers and storms possible this
afternoon into early evening. Outside of storms, winds will be
E/SE around 10 kts, with a brief westerly Gulf breeze at APF after
18Z. Brief flight restrictions will be possible in/near
thunderstorms today in the form of lower ceilings and
visibilities.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue
across the local waters through the rest of the weekend. These winds
will gradually veer and become more southerly heading into the early
and middle portion of the week. Seas across the Atlantic will remain
at 3 feet or less while seas across the Gulf remain at 2 feet or
less through the rest of the weekend and into early next week.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the local
waters each day and could result in locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic
Coast beaches through this evening. The risk of rip currents will
be at moderate levels Sunday and Monday, then diminsh for all
South Florida beaches heading into the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            87  78  88  78 /  60  50  60  30
West Kendall     89  76  90  76 /  70  50  60  30
Opa-Locka        89  78  90  78 /  60  50  60  30
Homestead        87  77  88  77 /  70  50  70  30
Fort Lauderdale  86  78  87  79 /  60  50  60  30
N Ft Lauderdale  87  78  88  79 /  60  50  60  30
Pembroke Pines   89  78  91  79 /  60  50  60  30
West Palm Beach  87  76  89  77 /  60  50  60  20
Boca Raton       88  78  90  77 /  60  50  60  30
Naples           89  76  90  77 /  70  60  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Molleda
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...CMF