Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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554 FXUS62 KMFL 221651 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1251 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Mid-level high pressure remains well-established over the Gulf of Mexico including the peninsula of Florida. A surface boundary remains to the south of the area separating drier air from the tropical airmass in the Caribbean. The combination of the drier air and high pressure aloft will again bring shower and thunderstorm chances below climatological norms for this time of year today and again on Monday. A warming trend commences as we head into Monday but the dewpoint recovery may take a bit longer thanks to a lack of atmospheric moisture transport from the tropics. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s generally with heat index values in the lower 100s. The light northerly to northeasterly drainage flow returns tonight and will again lead to a light and variable start for Monday. Eventually easterly flow will pick up as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure to the north and the boundary to the south. Morning coastal showers will transition inland and west through the afternoon and evening before the remnant convection focuses over the local waters overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Models begin the long term with a mid-level ridge over the GOMEX gradually migrating east and across the region through around the middle of the work week. At the same time, the dominant high pressure system centered over the SEc CONUS also migrates eastward into the W Atlantic, while a remnant frontal boundary continues to linger over the Florida Keys. As these synoptic features move closer to each other, pressure gradients across the area will become tighter, with sfc wind speeds gradually increasing. Flow veers to a more SSE flow by the end of the work week, with breezy periods expected each day. In terms of chances for rain, the influence of the aforementioned mid level ridge will combine with the high pressure to the north of the peninsula to keep a drier air mass in place on Tuesday. With the lingering boundary over the Florida keys, POPs for Tuesday afternoon remain in the 20-40 percent range, with the highest chances over the west coast and the southern tip of Florida. Sea breezes may again become focal points for deep convection and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon hours. The forecast scenario for the rest of the long term becomes rather complicated as uncertainty increases towards the end of the work week. Long range models remain divergent regarding potential and timing of possible tropical development over the west GOMEX. Regardless of the final outcome, there is enough consensus about a plume of tropical moisture over the west caribbean reaching the peninsula and bringing increasing shower/thunderstorm coverage for SoFlo. POPs increase into the 50-60 percent range for the Wed-Fri timeframe, with possible widespread showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours. Highest level of uncertainty remains in the forecast scenario for the weekend, which will continue to evolve as new model guidance becomes available. High temperatures on Tuesday should generally remain in the lower 90s, then slightly cooler for the rest of the week as cloud cover and shower activity increases. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A few showers and storms this afternoon and early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds, but mainly VFR conditions with onshore flow should prevail. Wind will lighten and become variable overnight. Morning Atlantic showers return and the focus should shift inland and west near the end of the period but chances are too low to mention or restrict. && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Generally light winds will continue with a decaying frontal boundary lingering south of the state. Showers and thunderstorms will be much less active as drier air continues to filter from the north behind a frontal passage. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that forms. Winds will veer easterly and strengthen early in the week as the pressure gradient across the region tightens. Eyes will turn to potential tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean mid to late week which could cause deteriorating conditions across the local waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Minor coastal flooding conditions should begin to improve as northerly swell and the tidal influence decreases, but some minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide around vulnerable low- lying coastal areas. The Coastal Flood Statement has been extended into Monday. Additionally, a moderate risk of rip currents continues for the Palm Beaches during the next couple of days. High Tide Tides... * Virginia Key - 1:13 PM Sun, 1:21 AM Mon, 2:09 PM Mon * South Port Everglades - 12:30 PM Sun, 12:40 AM Mon, 1:28 PM Mon * Lake Worth Pier - 12:14 PM Sun, 12:25 AM Mon, 1:14 PM Mon * Naples Bay, North - 5:50 PM Sun, 4:16 AM Mon, 7:21 PM Mon * Flamingo Visitors Center - 7:53 PM Sun, 7:12 AM Mon, 9:02 PM Mon && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 90 79 90 / 10 20 20 30 West Kendall 75 92 76 90 / 20 20 20 40 Opa-Locka 78 92 78 91 / 10 20 20 30 Homestead 77 90 78 90 / 20 20 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 78 89 79 88 / 10 20 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 78 90 79 90 / 10 20 20 30 Pembroke Pines 78 92 79 92 / 10 20 20 30 West Palm Beach 78 90 79 90 / 20 30 20 20 Boca Raton 78 91 79 90 / 20 20 20 20 Naples 77 92 76 93 / 20 40 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...RAG