Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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612 FXUS66 KMFR 222341 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 441 PM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...VFR conditions prevail across the region with high level clouds streaming over the area. IFR/LIFR conditions are again expected along the coast north of Cape Blanco and into the Coquille Basin tonight into early Monday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the rest of the area through the TAF period. /BR-y && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 PM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ DISCUSSION...Autumn began at 544 AM PDT this morning. The story of our weather for this week is consistent with previous expectations. Dry conditions are expected into Wednesday morning, with a warming trend into Tuesday (with an exception of warming only into Monday for Brookings). Gusty easterly ridge top winds at the Coast Range will be stronger tonight with gusts up to 30 mph. Weaker ridge top winds for the Coast Range will veer to southeast on Monday night with peak gusts up to 20 mph. The high temperature at Brookings has reached 83 so far today, and should be similar with 84 degrees forecast for Monday. Inland, highs mainly in the 80s on the west side and 70s on the east side today will trend to the 90s on the west side and 80s on the east side on Tuesday. Our weather will change with the arrival of a cold front late Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is a chance of rain from Port Orford northward Wednesday afternoon, then a slight chance into southwest Oregon (mainly Douglas County) as the front weakens Wednesday night. The other aspects will be the start of a cooling trend, and gusty southwest to west winds east of the Cascades late Wednesday into Wednesday evening with gusts up to 30 mph. Thursday looks to be cooler but dry. There are still a minimum of ensemble members indicating a slower arrival of the front, as late as late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. But, general agreement on the strength of the front. Another weaker front is expected around late Thursday night into Friday, with additional cooling. The outlook is that it will be around the next Friday (Day 14) before a stronger front with an chance of appreciable rain is on the horizon. MARINE...Updated 200 PM Sunday, September 22, 2024...A thermal trough will continue along/near the coast through Monday night. Consequently, strong northerly winds and steep seas are expected through Tuesday morning. The thermal trough is forecast to move inland with weakening winds and easing seas Tuesday into Wednesday. This will result in relatively calm seas and light wind speeds through at least Thursday night. Friday through Saturday will see an incoming fresh swell coupled with strong wind-driven seas which will likely lead to very steep and hazardous seas. We will ultimately need some hazards in play through this stretch, especially across our southern waters. -Guerrero && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$