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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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083 FXUS66 KMFR 290518 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1017 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion. .DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this evening reveals a few fair- weather cumulus out near Winter Rim and the Chewaucan Valley. Other than some cirrus near and offshore, skies are clear nearly everywhere else. Some smoke can be seen emanating from the Upper Applegate fire, then drifting off to the south just east of Applegate Lake. We`ll have some marine clouds move back onshore overnight into Saturday morning north of Cape Blanco and into the Coquille Valley. Patchy low clouds may also develop in the Umpqua Basin. We will see an uptick in mid-high clouds by Saturday morning in those areas as an upper trough offshore approaches. This trough will bring an increase in breezy afternoon/evening winds this weekend. Models are showing weak instability near the Cascades north of Crater Lake and across northern Klamath/Lake counties later Saturday afternoon/evening. This is fairly low probability (~15% chance), but could see how a cell pops up here or there, so have introduced a slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm in those areas, especially near Winter Rim area. Other than that, the going forecast remains unchanged for the remainder of the weekend and into next week. It does look like will get quite hot by the end of next week with a solid 60-70% chance of our first 100+ readings of the year here in Medford July 4th/5th. -Spilde && .AVIATION 29/06Z TAFS...Tonight, areas of IFR and LIFR ceilings will build into the coast and eventually spread into the Umpqua Basin and into Roseburg (KRBG) later tonight and early Saturday for a few hours. These conditions will clear to VFR in the mid to late morning Saturday. Areas of MVFR ceilings are expected to return to the coast Saturday evening. Elsewhere, expect VFR through the TAF period. Smoke from a few wildfires could produce some locally low visibility near those fires, otherwise the smoke will not be an issue near terminals. -CC && .MARINE...Updated 830 PM Friday, June 28, 2024...Gusty north winds will continue into tonight, with steep seas affecting areas south of Gold Beach. Look for steep wind driven seas with wave heights peaking around 8 feet or so. Winds and seas lower Saturday afternoon into Sunday for most of the area. However, areas from Pistol River south within about 15 NM of shore could observe brief and isolated advisory level seas as winds peak in the afternoon, generating a steep wind wave. These conditions will likely be too short lived and localized to warrant needing a warning, but you`ll want to watch Buoy 27 to monitor conditions in this area to be safe before heading out. Then, a very strong thermal trough is expected to develop next week beginning on Monday and lingering towards the end of the week. The peak should be either Tuesday or Wednesday evening, but there is some spread in the forecast and uncertainty here. As for the wind speeds expected during the peak of the thermal trough, the chance for gale force wind gusts south of Cape Blanco is 70% or greater (90% plus south of Pistol River) and this will drive very steep waves. There is also a moderate (20-40%) chance that gale force winds develop over the waters north of Cape Blanco. -Smith/CC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 446 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2024/ DISCUSSION...Clear skies continue over northern California and southern Oregon this afternoon, with the slightest hints of terrain- influenced cumulus flickering on satellite imagery. A weak trough will pass over the area through the weekend, helping to keep daytime temperatures near seasonal levels on Saturday and Sunday. This pattern will continue to push marine moisture over the Oregon coast in the mornings. This layer could move into the Umpqua Valley on Sunday morning. However, no precipitation is expected under these clouds. The weekend trough trough will also bring evening chances for active weather east of the Cascades. Model soundings showing CAPE values between 100 and 200 J/Kg on Saturday evening as well as upper level vorticity and above average moisture. These conditions will make evening thunderstorms a possibility around the northern Klamath/Lake County border on Saturday evening. These chances are slight, currently topping out at 10% in a small area, but the chances have been increasing by a percentage or two daily. Thunderstorm chances are looking higher for Sunday evening, reaching 10-15% in eastern Lake and Modoc counties. Less moisture will be present but CAPE values could be in the 300-400 J/Kg range which is more than enough to trigger thunderstorms in this area. A pattern change to upper level ridging will build next week and could remain. This period is particularly important, as this upper level stability will drive conditions on the 4th of July. Ridging looks to build through the week, with the highest temperatures and the driest air present on July 4th, 5th, and 6th. Temperatures in the Rogue and Shasta valleys as well as in western Siskiyou valleys have a 50% of exceeding 100 degrees in this period. Other west side valleys and areas east of the Cascades look to be in the low to mid 90s under the ridging pattern. Exceptionally low relative humidity values are expected in all inland areas. With gusty afternoon winds continuing, fire hazards for next week will be substantial. Activities that could create sparks or flames should be avoided, as fuels will be dry and winds will easily carry sparks or embers to new areas. Some details will require additional guidance. Forecast temperatures for Brookings may increase as next week`s pattern comes into better focus, as periods of Chetco Effect winds are possible. Additionally, Heat Risk values increase through the week. Areas of Advisory-level conditions possible in the Rogue, Shasta, Scott, and western Siskiyou valleys possible by the end of the week. Finally, the NBM temperature guidance does show a 8-12 degree interquartile range for daytime highs, suggesting some uncertainty in the timing of how ridging will build. So hot and dry is expected, but please check back as the finer points come into focus. -TAD Today, we bid farewell to Ryan Sandler, our Warning Coordination Meteorologist, as he begins his much anticipated and well-deserved retirement. Ryan began his career at Neena, WI in December of 1989, before moving on to Milwaukee, WI, then Wilmington OH, and finally here to Medford in 1998. Ryan has been a knowledgeable and respected colleague, a dedicated public servant, and an all-around great friend to those of us here at the Medford forecast office these past many years. We wish you fair winds, fifty-five degree temperatures, and following seas as you embark on this next journey. Go Sox! AVIATION 29/00Z TAFS...Some cumulus clouds are building over the higher Cascades this afternoon with little to no cloud cover elsewhere. This trend will persist into evening hours as VFR conditions prevail over the majority of the forecast area. Smoke from a few wildfires could produce some locally low visibility near those fires, otherwise the smoke will not be an issue near terminals. Later tonight, some more LIFR ceilings will build into the coast and should eventually spread into the Umpqua Basin and into Roseburg(KRBG) later tonight for a few hours. VFR conditions are anticipated for most of Saturday. -Smith MARINE...Updated 230 PM Friday, June 28, 2024...Gusty winds will pick up later this afternoon into the early evening, especially south of Gold Beach. Look for steep wind driven seas with wave heights peaking around 8 feet or so. These conditions will remain hazardous to smaller crafts through Friday night. Winds and seas lower Saturday afternoon into Sunday for most of the area. However, areas from Pistol River south within about 15 NM of shore could observe brief and isolated advisory level seas as winds peak in the afternoon, generating a steep wind wave. These conditions will likely be too short lived and localized to warrant needing a warning, but you`ll want to watch Buoy 27 to monitor conditions in this area to be safe before heading out. Then, a very strong thermal trough is expected to develop next week beginning on Monday and lingering towards the end of the week. The peak should be either Tuesday or Wednesday evening, but there is some spread in the forecast and uncertainty here. As for the wind speeds expected during the peak of the thermal trough, the chance for gale force wind gusts south of Cape Blanco is 70% or greater (90% plus south of Pistol River) and this will drive very steep waves. There is also a moderate (20-40%) chance that gale force winds develop over the waters north of Cape Blanco. -Miles/Smith && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376. && $$ MAS/CC/TAD/CZS