Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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663 FXUS66 KMFR 110534 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1034 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .DISCUSSION...An update is not necessary. A dry front moving across Washington on Tuesday will bring an increased pressure gradient with stronger, gusty, breezy westerly afternoon winds. But, high pressure aloft will be the dominant feature through Thursday with inland temperatures remaining several to a dozen degrees above normal. A weakening front on Friday will bring another nudge higher to the speed of gusty afternoon westerly winds, and usher in temperatures that will trend to several degrees below normal by Sunday. This includes a deeper marine push Friday evening into Saturday morning with a few light coastal showers possible. A more broad impact with chances of wet weather currently looks to hold off until Sunday night. A stronger trough may arrive on Day 8/Tuesday. -DW && .AVIATION...11/06Z TAFs...VFR ceilings will persist away from the coast through the TAF period. IFR ceilings are anticipated to build into the coast again tonight near North Bend as high pressure and a strong inversion remain present. Some MVFR ceilings should move into the coast around Tuesday morning and afternoon as plenty of moisture remains present in the boundary layer. A cold front with some modest vertical lift ahead of a dry cold front will aid in the coastal cloud cover. We`ll see those ceilings clear out later Tuesday evening. -Smith && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM Monday, June 10, 2024...A persistent thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and steep seas south of Cape Blanco through tonight. Winds and seas subside briefly early Tuesday, but north winds increase again Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as another moderate west swell arrives. We have extended the small craft advisory and have also issued a hazardous seas watch for this potential. On Wednesday, the potential for gales and very steep, hazardous seas south of Cape Blanco will further occur. We will wait until the details come in better focus to issue the gales. Winds and seas remain elevated through Thursday, but should lower some late in the week. -Spilde/Smith && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 222 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ DISCUSSION...The area is heading into a rather quiet period for the next week or so, and although there is a pattern change expected by next weekend, there will not be much in the way of impactful weather through at least next weekend. Currently, ridging extends north over the Pacific Northwest, with a closed low off the coast of southern California, and a large trough in the Gulf of Alaska. This general pattern will remain virtually unchanged through the rest of the week, although a passing shortwave to our north will flatten out the ridge midweek, producing more zonal flow over the area midweek. Overall, this will produce warm and dry conditions through Thursday, with daily highs running roughly 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Beginning Friday, the closed low to our south will weaken and push onshore through the Great Basin, breaking the stagnant pattern and allowing our ridge to shift east while the large trough in the Gulf of Alaska nudges ever closer toward the Pacific Northwest before finally passing over the area through the weekend. This will result in a cooling trend, with temperatures returning to near-normal values for early to mid June. The precipitation chances, however, will depend on the exact track of the trough, and where the main belt of moisture will travel. The most likely scenario keeps both of these to the north, with showers remaining confined to the coast, the Umpqua Basin, and the western slopes of the Cascades north of Crater Lake. Should the trough track a bit farther south, precipitation chances will also shift south, although confidence in this scenario is much lower. We will also need to keep an eye out for thunderstorm potential, but with the low by then missing off the California coast, the system will not be able to tap into the southerly moisture source that we typically need for widespread convection. In short, expect two seasons this week: dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures through Thursday, followed by cooler conditions and the potential for showers through the weekend. -BPN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370. Hazardous Seas Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ376. && $$