Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
142 FXUS66 KMFR 190539 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1039 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .DISCUSSION...Tonight, mostly clear skies will prevail. However, a thermal trough will set up along the south Oregon coast. residual moisture from rain earlier in the week will bring marine stratus to the coast north of Cape Blanco and south of Gold Beach. Some stratus could also form in portions of the Umpqua Basin. Thursday through early next week will be dry with afternoon temperatures trending warmer for the interior. The thermal trough will remain in place along the south Oregon coast and the pattern is one where we could see afternoon temperatures at Brookings get into the lower to mid 70s Thursday, then into the lower to mid 80s, possibly the upper 80s Friday through the start of next week. Tuesday, the thermal trough will build north and weaken some allowing the flow to become weak onshore at Brookings, therefore it should be cooler. Upper ridging will build over the area Monday and Tuesday with afternoon temperatures maxing out both these days, then the upper ridge will flatten out some with the thermal trough shifting east of the Cascades and being replaced with an onshore flow resulting in cooler afternoon temperatures. -Petrucelli/Spilde && .AVIATION...19/06Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR will impact coastal locations overnight into Thursday morning, especially from Port Orford northward, but also south of Gold Beach. Expect the stratus/fog to break up around 18z, then gusty north winds (gusts of 25+ kt) will develop at North Bend Thursday afternoon. IFR ceilings could return to some areas Thursday night, but probably not as widespread as tonight. Inland, areas of MVFR ceilings are expected to develop in the Umpqua Basin overnight into Thursday morning, including at Roseburg. Highest probability of MVFR ceilings is from 12-18Z, then VFR will return Thursday afternoon. Most of the remainder of the area will be VFR for the next 24 hours, aside from patchy valley fog early Thursday, especially in areas that had some rain on Tuesday. Any fog will be short-lived though, only for a few hours at most. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 830 PM Wednesday, September 18, 2024...A thermal trough will bring gusty northerly winds, building steep seas in waters south of Cape Blanco this evening. Steep seas will spread to waters north of Cape Blanco later Thursday morning, with very steep and hazardous seas expected south of Pistol River. Periods of very steep seas may be possible as far north as Port Orford on Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening. Occasional gale gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening as well. The thermal trough looks to remain in place through the weekend and into next week, with signs of calming by Tuesday evening. A Hazardous Seas Warning is in place for waters south of Pistol River and beyond 5 nm from shore, and a Small Craft Advisory will cover all other waters. Currently these hazards are in place through Friday at 5 PM, but are likely to extend through the weekend. Additional guidance will help to determine the best areal coverage for continuing chaotic seas. -TAD/Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 AM Thursday to 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$ MAP/CZS/TAD/MAS