Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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077 FXUS66 KMFR 170006 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 506 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...Updated AVIATION discussion... .SHORT TERM...Tonight (9/16) through Wednesday night (9/19)... Satellite imagery is showing extensive cloud cover across portions of southern Oregon and northern California. Above the lower cloud layer is a second layer of higher clouds that are circulating anti- clockwise indicative of a low pressure system traversing across northern California and northwest Nevada. Meanwhile, RADAR imagery is showing some showers pushing from northeast to southwest across portions of Klamath, Siskiyou, and Modoc Counties. There may be additional showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, specifically for portions of Lake and Modoc Counties. This low will traverse out of our area this evening and tonight and the next low will approach the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. This will bring the next set of precipitation across the area, mainly favoring West Side. In general, rainfall will be wetting along and west of the Cascades. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal as well. Showers may linger on Wednesday, but gradually dissipate. Temperatures will start to warm up on Wednesday as well. -Schaaf .LONG TERM...Thursday (9/20)through Monday (9/23)...A ridge of high pressure returns to the area, allowing conditions to dry out and temperatures to warm up. Another front will push through the Pacific Northwest over the weekend, and ensembles differ on the strength and location of the front. That being said, the National Blend of Models favors a 20 percent chance or less for precipitation for the coast, Umpqua Basin and the Cascades from Highway 140 northward. Stay tuned to the forecast as we are entering the shoulder of fire season where wetter weather begins to return. This is the case as ensembles suggest that another system could return by midweek next week. Fire season is not quite over, but it has slowed significantly by this point, and we will continue to see how things play out. -Schaaf && .AVIATION...17/00Z TAFS...Clouds continue to spin around an upper level disturbance this afternoon. Showers are decreasing, and mostly located over Siskiyou and Modoc counties. Cloud cover from the disturbance will continue over Modoc and Lake counties through the TAF period, with areas of MVFR and IFR ceilings. Marine stratus is developing along the Oregon coast at North Bend, with MVFR ceilings generally expected overnight and into Tuesday morning. IFR ceilings are possible early Tuesday morning but are not well supported in current guidance. On Tuesday afternoon, another system will approach the area. Showers are expected at North Bend and near Roseburg on Tuesday afternoon, with further showers beyond the current TAF period. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 230 PM Monday, September 16, 2024... Strengthening today will result in steep to very steep seas through tonight, with the strongest winds and highest seas south of Cape Blanco where a Hazardous Seas Warning is in effect through 5 AM. An incoming front Tuesday will briefly turn winds to a southerly component, while allowing seas to briefly diminish. During this time, rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will also be possible over the waters. The chance for rain is high (85+%), but thunderstorm chances are only around 15-20%. That said, any thunderstorm that develops will have the potential for strong erratic gusty winds. Moderate to occasionally strong north winds and steep seas will develop Wednesday, likely bringing the return of conditions hazardous to small craft through the end of the week. -Guerrero/Hermansen && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376. && $$