399
FXUS62 KMHX 240556
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
156 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will reside across the piedmont while a series
of upper level shortwaves will generate multiple rounds of
shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend. A stronger
cold front will move through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 1:45 AM Friday...A line of convection is entering the CWA
from the west but the severe threat is low (< 10%) with SBCAPE
around 500 J/kg and deep layer shear around 25 kt. Instability
will continue to wane as we progress into the overnight hours
and the showers and thunderstorms move eastward. Tonight will be
muggy with lows in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 4 PM Thursday...A moist and
unstable airmass remains across the region Friday with another
mid level shortwave and sfc front approach from the NW. Shower
chances linger through the morning but expect greater coverage
during the afternoon, around 30-50%, when instability is
maximized. The severe threat will be minimal with shear around
20-25 kt and SBCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Warm and muggy
conditions will persist but low level thicknesses are several
meters lower than today and expect highs in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Weather remains unsettled for the weekend and into early next week
with small chances (20-30%) each day through Tuesday

- Above normal temperatures for much of the period with inland areas
in the mid to upper 80s and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.

Much of the long term forecast will be characterized by
unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms possible each
through midweek before drier conditions prevail.

The period will begin on Friday night with a weak frontal
system with the parent high over the Canadian Maritimes
gradually sinking into the Carolinas. By the time it arrives,
there will not be much of an airmass change with warm and moist
conditions remaining prevalent. While this is happening the tail
end of the departing system will combine with an approaching
system from the west creating a stationary front that will
feature several shortwaves pulsing along it through the weekend.
While no day will likely be a washout, periods of showers and
thunderstorms can be expected particularly during diurnal peak
heating.

Along with the rain chances, temperatures are expected to be above
normal and heat index values creeping into the low to mid 90s,
especially inland locations on Sunday and Monday afternoons. These
two day will present the hottest conditions before a bit of
relief although still warm for the middle part of the week.

For next week model confidence is very low as attention turns to a
slow meandering low pressure system over the upper midwest that will
bring the next wave of moisture in from the west. Forecasted
precipitation chances are low for now due to the uncertainty
but would not be surprised to see them increase in future
iterations of the forecast as models get a better idea of how to
handle on what right now is a very disorganized system at best.
Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 1:45 AM Friday...A line of convection is moving across the
coastal plain and into our western counties. This may bring
periods of gusty winds and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities.
Widespread fog development is not expected given the light winds
and cloud cover, but some patchy fog can`t be ruled out late
tonight. Precip chances will decrease Friday mornining and then
increase through the day. Similarly to tonight, VFR cats are
expected outside of convection. Afternoon and evening ceilings
will be close to MVFR (3500 to 4500 ft) but will lift as we
progress into the overnight hours.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...For Friday and beyond expect rain and
thunder chances each day with afternoon hours being most
susceptible to convection. Southwest winds will prevail for much
of the period with speeds of 5- 10 kts gusting to 15.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/...
As of 430 PM Thursday...High pressure will remain offshore
through the short term bringing SW winds around 15 kt or less.
Could see gusts to around 20 kt during the afternoon and evening
hours when thermal gradients are tightest. Seas will be around
2-3 ft. Thunderstorm chances will increase this evening and
continue through Friday as series of weak systems move across
the region.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...SW winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20
kt, as well as 2-3 ft seas and multiple chances for showers and
thunderstorms, will stick around through the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...OJC/RTE/SK
MARINE...RTE/SK