054
FXUS62 KMHX 061730
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
130 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains off the Southeast coast through today. A
strong cold front will approach from the west Thursday and move
through Friday and Friday evening, with drier conditions this
weekend. Another front will move through Sunday night into early
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1315 Thursday...Very warm and humid start to the day as
temperatures climb into the 90s and Tds hover in the low 70s
through this afternoon. In addition to driving heat indices near
100 degrees, instability on this morning`s sounding had in
excess of 2kJ/kg, and this is only expected to increase through
the afternoon. With heights continuing to gradually fall with
the approaching shortwave trough, airmass will be increasingly
supportive of convective development this afternoon.

Guidance continues to throw increasingly cold water on the idea
of convection developing along the sea breeze this afternoon,
possibly owing to stabilization thanks to this morning`s shower
activity. Still think there is a primarily isolated threat of
showers and maybe a storm here, and continued to carry a slight
chance PoP for the early afternoon. The primary focal point of
storms will be ahead of the main front itself, where more
organized convective clusters are likely with better dynamics
associated with the shortwave trough. These storms will approach
the coastal plain from the W early this evening. Outflow
boundary interactions between storms will potentially fuel
additional isolated cell development ahead of this feature.
Forecast bulk shear over our area is not expected to exceed 20
kt with minimal turning, which points to a very low risk of
organized severe storms. Still, with this unstable of an airmass
a few isolated strong cells capable of microbursts are
possible. Torrential rainfall is also a threat given PWATs near
2" areawide. Given dry antecedent conditions, the risk of flash
flooding is low outside of typically vulnerable (low-lying and
urban) locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 405 AM Thu...Cold front will continue to approach the
area overnight. Convective clusters associated with the front
will likely be ongoing although instability will be waning
through the overnight hours. CAMs point to this cluster of
activity pushing off the coast of the Outer Banks overnight.
Once the main cold front begins to cross into the coastal plain
early Friday morning, one last broken band of frontally-forced
showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop with CAMS
favoring this activity grazing the Crystal Coast and offshore
locations in the pre-dawn hours. A severe risk is not
anticipated with this activity, although the threat of
torrential rainfall will persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thu...The cold front will move through Friday,
finally pushing offshore Friday evening. Mostly dry with a more
comfortable airmass expected this weekend. Another front will
likely push through Sunday night and early Monday, bringing
threat for sct showers and storms.

Friday through Sunday...The front will move through Friday,
finally pushing offshore Friday evening. Isolated showers and
storms may linger along the coast through the day, with
seabreeze likely pinned in the afternoon and weak boundary in
the vicinity. Upper troughing becomes more zonal along the east
coast through the weekend with weak high pressure building in,
keeping area mostly dry. A more comfortable airmass expected
over the weekend with dewpoints falling into the 50s and 60s and
high temps in the 80s Sat and 80s to low 90s Sun.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Still some uncertainty heading
into next week, but starting to come into better focus with much
better agreement in the global guidance. A front will move
through Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing chances
for sct showers and storms. Upper troughing will continue over
the eastern US, with weak high pressure building in and
potential for weak coastal troughing along the SE coast Mon
through Wed. Will continue with temps and pops near climo
through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through early Friday/...
As of 1320 Thursday...Predominant VFR conditions through the
rest of the daytime hours. Thinking on convective forecast has
evolved since the prior forecast. Crystal Coast afternoon threat
is still present, but confidence in this scenario has dropped
with newest hi-res guidance now keeping area completely dry
until 23-00z. Main focus for possibility of subVFR flight cats
remains on clusters of cells developing ahead of the main cold
front, encroaching on the coastal plain early this evening.
Primary threat window is 23-00z to around 04-05z, although a
renewed round of development along the coast overnight will
extend the threat for OAJ until 08-09z. A few stronger storms
cannot be ruled out, especially for any activity north of a line
from HSE- EWN- GWW. Breezy S-SWerly winds this afternoon and
evening with gusts to 15-20 kt, with a few infrequent gusts to
25 kt possible across the inner coastal plain. Once the storms
pass through, the front will begin to push through the area
turning winds more Werly with some clearing from W to E. Lower
CIGs linger in the early morning hours offshore and along the
coast, but are expected to remain E of the coastal TAF sites.
VFR flight cats forecast for Friday with some afternoon
showers/storms possible along the seabreeze which will be pinned
to the coast. Werly flow aloft will push any storms that do pop
up will be blown toward the coast and offshore.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday
with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers and
storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which may
bring brief periods of sub-VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 410 AM Thu...Deteriorating boating conditions expected
over area waters today ahead of an approaching cold front
currently just west of the Appalachians this morning. Regional
observations show widespread southwesterly winds of 15-20 kts
with the strongest winds over the Pamlico Sound, reaching 20-25
kt at times. Offshore, seas are slowly building to 3-4 feet in
response.

As cold front approaches area waters this afternoon, pressure
gradient will tighten further with more widespread Sw winds of
20-25 kt, particularly for offshore waters and the Pamlico
Sound. Strongest winds are likely after 21z and will begin to
ease after 06z as the front begins to push across the coastal
plain. Seas will continue to build through Fri morning, reaching
up to 6 feet across portions of Raleigh Bay especially beyond
10-15 nm.

SCA headlines were left intact from the previous forecast with
only a few minor adjustments to lengthen expiration times.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thu...The cold front will move through Friday and
Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW
10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW-WNW winds Fri night and Sat
5-15 kt. Moderate to breezy SW flow returns Sunday ahead of
another cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt by Sunday
evening, with the front moving through Sunday night into early
Monday morning. Seas will subside to 2-4 ft Fri afternoon and
cont through the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...CQD/MS