Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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654 FXUS62 KMHX 310141 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 941 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Shortwave passing through tonight may bring a few showers. Behind this wave, cooler and drier high pressure builds overhead for the weekend. High pressure then builds offshore early next week with temps returning to above normal. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 940 PM Thu...No significant changes needed to previous forecast for evening update. A potent shortwave and an associated 100kt upper jet are forecast to round the base of upr trough tonight. Modest low- mid level moistening beneath cool temps aloft will support a period of weak instability timed out with the passage of the shortwave and very weak SFC troughing. This should support the development of scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two that will move from NW to SE along a line from Martin and Washington Co toward DownEast Carteret and the OBX towards morning. Showers now beginning to develop over SE VA. Low severe wx threat as instability will be elevated in nature, though perhaps some pea size hail could occur should any of the stronger updrafts reach their full potential with the steep mid level lapse rates. MinTs in the mid to upper 50s inland to 60s coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Thu...After a couple lingering AM showers and iso storms, the day looks to be quite pleasant with low humidities and highs 75-80. TD`s only in the 40s interior to low 50s coast, and nne breeze will make it even feel a bit chilly in the shade. Some diurnal strato cu may develop, esp ern zones, and help keep temps down just a touch. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM Thurs...Cool high pressure will build into the area Friday and into the weekend with below normal temperatures and low humidity expected. Then, high pressure will slide offshore early next week with a return to a summery pattern featuring daily scattered afternoon thunderstorms and highs near normal. Friday through Sunday...A few morning showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday as a reinforcing front moves offshore, but then expect mostly dry conditions through the weekend. Cooler high pressure will remain centered to the west this weekend which will lead to below normal temperatures and low humidity...a welcome sight here in early June. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s, while low temps dip to near record lows Friday night (in the upper 40s to low 50s inland), and then mid to upper 50s Saturday night. Monday through Wednesday...High pressure will build offshore early next week allowing for a return of summer-like warmth and humidity. Increasing moisture will introduce a risk for isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon with the best chances for rain (~30%) Wednesday as weak upper level impulses move through a mostly zonal flow. Temps will return to near normal, with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 each day, and lows mostly in the 60s. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 630 PM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Showers and perhaps a storm or two are possible east of the TAF sites late tonight to early Fri, so have not included any shower mention at this time, but may have to watch for any development further west than currently anticipated with later forecasts. Some sct strato cu in the 5-6k ft range will impact the taf sites through the period. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 330 AM Thurs...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the long term as high pressure remains in place across the region. However, strong cooling each morning could result in the formation of patchy fog which could bring periods of sub-VFR visibilities to the terminals. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Fri/... As of 940 PM Thu...Latest obs show NE-SE winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Seas will continue around 2-3 ft, highest over outer Central waters where 4ft possible. Shortwave traveling through the trough aloft passes over the FA after midnight tonight leading to chance of showers and a storm or two working from NW to SE across the Pam/Pungo Rivers, Wern extent of the Pamlico Sound, DownEast Carteret, and then across Cape Lookout around sunrise Fri. Nerly winds on Fri in the 15 kt range with some gusts in the lower 20s, but remaining below SCA levels with seas of 2-4 ft. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 330 AM Thurs...Good boating conditions expected through the weekend and into early next week with high pressure overhead. Winds will be N/NNE 10-15 kts Friday, and then subside slight to 5-10 kts Saturday. Return flow develops Sunday with winds becoming SSW at 5-10 kts. Winds then become SW at 10-15 kts Monday. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through the period. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD/TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...SK/SGK AVIATION...CQD/TL/SGK MARINE...CQD/TL/SGK