Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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968 FXUS62 KMHX 120110 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 910 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A mid level disturbance will move across the region tonight with scattered showers and storms ending early this evening. High pressure will ridge into the area Wednesday and Thursday while an area of low pressure meanders off the Southeast coast. The high pulls offshore Friday with a cold front pushing across the area Saturday. High pressure builds in early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 910 PM Tuesday...Convection from earlier today has almost completely diminished early this evening due to the loss of heating. Not expecting any redevelopment after 2Z or so as the axis of the upper trough is offshore along with with the region of best lift. The upper trough will push farther offshore tonight while sfc high pressure builds into the area. Clear skies and calm winds could allow for patchy fog development however ensemble guidance is showing less than impressive probabilities, but considering the less than stellar performance of guidance with overnight fog lately, have opted to include patchy fog in the forecast. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s to around 70 coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... As of 1515 Tuesday...Dry day on deck with upper level flow becoming more zonal behind the departing trough aloft, NW downslope mid level flow bringing drier conditions across the region with localized SFC high sliding offshore the NC/VA coast through the period. Have below mentionable PoPs along the afternoon seabreeze with much less upper level support relative to today. Highs in the upper 80s most, upper 70s to low 80s beaches but the lower Tds will make the AppTs a little cooler. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday... Key Points: - Dry Wednesday Night-Thursday night as high pressure dominates. - Low pressure scales NE`ward off SE coast Friday-Saturday - Minor heat risk concerns Saturday - Cold front moves through in the weekend - Dry start to next week Wednesday Night and Thursday... Chances for fog Wed night and Thur night with generally clear skies and calm winds. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, low to mid 80s for beaches. Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday. Further to our south, a plume of tropical moisture originating in the Gulf of Mexico will traverse across the FL peninsula Tuesday into Tuesday night along a shortwave. Wednesday into Thursday the shortwave is expected to move NE`ward off the SC/GA/FL coast, where it becomes a bit better organized and a sfc low develops in between two areas of strong ridging. Friday through Sunday... Complicated setup in store, with a weak low meandering off the southeast coast and a cold front sweeping through the region. Friday the sfc low to our south moves NE`ward, likely along the gulf stream. Most models are showing the sfc low far enough offshore for minimal impacts. However, the most recent (6/11 00Z) GFS run has the low closer to the Crystal Coast and OBX Friday, resulting in higher precip chances for the coast and more hazardous marine conditions for our nearshore coastal waters. Saturday, temps will reach the mid 90s inland, which combined with Tds in the mid 70s will result in minor heat risk concerns. Current forecasted ApparentT is near 100 degrees for inland areas south of hwy 264. A mostly dry cold front (capped PoPs below 30%) sweeps through the region Saturday and gives the sfc low to our east a ride off into the Atlantic. Behind the cold front ridging sets in Sunday, with a quick hitting back door cold front moving in from the north allowing Tds to briefly drop to the 60s. Monday through Tuesday... Strong ridging brings clear skies and temps getting progressively warmer through early next week. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/... As of 525 PM Tuesday...Pred VFR flight cats expected through the rest of the day today. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms late today could bring brief sub-VFR conditions through 00Z this evening. Clear skies and calm winds will bring good radiational cooling conditions but ensemble based guidance continue to show low probs for fog tonight. Given recent model performance, have opted to lean more pessimistic and introduced prevailing MVFR VIS for coastal TAF sites with shorter duration TEMPO groups for the inland TAF sites where chances are lower. Wed is expected to be dry with light winds and continued VFR conditions. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...High pressure dominating Wednesday night- Thursday will bring a period of calm winds and clear/mostly clear skies through Thursday night. This increases the potential for sub-VFR conditions due to fog, particularly during the early morning hours. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/... As of 910 PM Tuesday...A cold front remains stalled around 80-100 mi offshore while a trough of low pressure remains across the central piedmont. Good boating conditions will continue through the short term with mainly easterly winds generally less than 15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. NEerly flow early WED 10-15kt becoming more onshore as seabreeze takes over in the afternoon. Seas build slightly to 2-4ft with wind chop on top of Serly 6-7sec swell. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Long term starts off benign, with waves 2-3 ft and easterly winds generally gusting below 15 kts through Thursday. Friday through the weekend we have a lot of uncertainty, as the forecast highly depends on how the sfc low developing off the SE coast over the next 24 hours progresses. Potential for SCA gusts and elevated seas exists Friday through Sunday if the sfc low approaches closer to our nearshore waters or strengthens substantially, but confidence remains too low at this point. Early next week pleasant boating conditions return, with waves 2-3 ft and E/SE winds less than 15 kts as high pressure dominates. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME/CEB SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...RJ AVIATION...JME/CEB/RJ MARINE...JME/CEB/RJ