Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
700 FXUS62 KMHX 091207 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 807 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Typical summertime conditions are expected today. This will be followed up by a series of upper level systems that will push across the area bringing unsettled weather through the rest of the work-week. A backdoor front approaches the area this weekend, keeping an active pattern in place. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 730 AM Wednesday... Key Messages - Confidence remains low to moderate regarding thunderstorm strength and coverage through tonight Offshore convection has started to migrate/develop inland along the immediate coastline this morning, with showers noted from coastal Onslow County northeast through the Outer Banks. This initial round of showers and isolated thunderstorms will probably persist for another 2-4 hours before low-level convergence weakens. Once we move into this afternoon, the main focus for convection looks to be the seabreeze. The overall lack of convection along the seabreeze yesterday was likely due to somewhat drier air aloft and residual ridging aloft. The overall synoptic pattern looks fairly similar for today. However, ridging shifting a bit further east of the area, plus the return of 2" PWATs, may allow a bit more convective potential along the seabreeze compared to yesterday, and the forecast reflects this. It should be noted, though, that short term guidance shows a fairly muted seabreeze once again which makes the convective forecast less certain. Low-level thicknesses are forecast to decrease a bit compared to yesterday, and this should allow highs to top out 2-3 degrees lower than yesterday. Boundary layer dewpoints shouldn`t change much compared to yesterday, but the slightly lower temperatures should keep heat indices down some, with a lowered risk of reaching heat advisory criteria. In light of this, heat headlines are not anticipated for today. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM Wednesday... Mid-level ridging shifting offshore will allow upper level troughing to edge closer to the eastern Carolinas this evening and tonight, which will support an overall increase in large scale forcing across the region. The approach of the upper trough should also help encourage a frontal boundary to edge closer to the local area as well. The net effect should be an increased coverage of thunderstorms from central NC north into central/eastern Virginia. For ENC, the question, then, is whether or not any of this convection will be able to survive into the area or not. Short-term guidance is mixed, ranging from isolated thunderstorms tonight on one side of the spectrum, to a slow-moving MCS moving east through the area on the other end of the spectrum. Blended guidance favors the isolated thunderstorm scenario, and the forecast will reflect that for now. However, this is something we will continue to assess in later forecast updates. As the front and upper trough approach the area tonight, deep layer shear will subsequently increase, but only to about 15-20kt. This combined with a stabilizing boundary layer should keep the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms at a minimum. However, this could be enough to help maintain some thunderstorm organization through the night if convection can survive this far east. In the reasonably worst case scenario, a slow- moving MCS moving through the area would favor gusty winds, heavy rain, and the potential for minor flooding. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 0445 Wednesday...Overall, summertime pattern with SFC thermal trough inland and high anchored offshore. Upper levels have multiple troughs and/or closed lows streaming through Great Lakes and off the NE coast but at our latitude, ridging dominates offshore to the E and over WCONUS. A series of midlevel shortwave troughs will push across the region mid to late week continuing to keep the moisture influx off the Gulf at least somewhat tapped from midlevels downward across SECONUS. Typical diurnal PoP pattern unless a stronger storm cluster persists and drifts into the FA from further inland in the early overnight hours before dissipating. With high PW values, the greatest threat from the storms will be heavy rainfall. WPC currently has at least part of the FA in a marginal ERO for the remainder of the work week. Instability is what you would expect around this time of year, 2-4kJ/kg depending on what guidance you trust. Shear parameters do not look overly impressive given the departure from upper level jet(s) well to the N and offshore high expanding its effective area Ward at the end of the week. With that said, water loading of strongest updrafts could lead to some gustier wind potential should the bottom fall out of more vigorous cells. As such, SPC has parts of the FA in marginal threat for severe storms to develop. Coastal Plain is where the strongest instability and greatest convergence would line up. MaxTs in upper 80s, MinTs mid 70s. This weekend, a backdoor front slowly sags down the MidAtlantic coast but there are tons of model differences in how far and how quickly it will march Sward. This remains contingent on how much momentum gets transferred from the trough aloft exiting NECONUS and where midlevel shortwaves and potential MCSs line up. For now, keeping the backdoor front N of the area until early next week which will keep available moisture for diurnal summer time shower and tstorms in place through the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Thursday/... As of 730 AM Wednesday... Key Messages - MVFR/IFR this morning will gradually transition to VFR conditions by 14-15z - Confidence remains low to moderate regarding the TSRA potential through tonight Visible satellite imagery this morning reveals an area of modest low- level convergence over the Atlantic coastal waters, extending inland to the coast of ENC. This area of convergence has allowed SHRA and isolated TSRA over the Atlantic to begin to migrate towards/develop over the immediate coastline from south of KOAJ to near KHSE. I expect these SHRA to persist for a few more hours, potentially reaching as far inland as KOAJ and KEWN prior to 16z. In light of this, I`ve added a SHRA mention to both terminals. After the morning SHRA, there should be a lull until the seabreeze develops and moves inland. Recent short term guidance has started to trend a bit more active along the seabreeze, which gives a nudge up in confidence regarding the potential for TSRA this afternoon. Confidence isn`t high enough yet for a TEMPO or prevailing line for TSRA, but it appears to give more credence to the PROB30 groups. Later this evening and into tonight, guidance continues to show a decent signal for TSRA to move out of central NC and into parts of ENC. Should this occur, this would support an increased risk of sub VFR conditions (CIGs, VIS). LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 0430 Wednesday...A series of mid-level systems will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring the threat of showers and storms with reduced flight cats. Late night and early morning fog and stratus will also be possible most mornings for areas that see meaningful rainfall. Slow moving front sags down the NE coast late weekend/early week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 0500 Wednesday...Rinse and repeat of yesterday. SWerly 10-15G20kt building to 15-20G25-30kt in late afternoon before beginning to ease after midnight, Seas less than ideal if green in smaller boats, 2-4ft SSWerly wind waves on top of weakening 1-2ft ESEerly longer period swell. SCAs issued for coastal waters from Cape Lookout Nward, Pam/Cro/Roa sounds due to the 25-30kt gusts this afternoon to an hr or two either side of midnight. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 0510 Wednesday...Expect similar to above through the end of the work week, but there may be a SLIGHT downward trend in what the winds will peak at in the afternoons and evenings as the offshore high builds Wward toward the coast FRI. Cold front slowly sags down NEcoast this weekend, but for now, keep it no further S than the NC/VA border until early next week. Therefore, see above. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...RM/CEB MARINE...CEB