765
FXUS62 KMHX 010459
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1259 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier high pressure builds overhead through the
weekend. High pressure then shifts offshore early next week with
temps returning to around normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
As of 1255 AM Sat... Made some minor tweaks to the temps and
dewpoints over the next few hours to match up with current
observations, but otherwise general trend in the forecast is
the same. Latest surface analysis shows high pressure is
currently centered across our NW`rn zones with light and
variable winds and clear skies overhead. With temps lowering to
near or equal to the dewpoints tonight, there is a very low
(less than 10%) chance to see some steam/ground fog especially
near our inland rivers, though any impact from this ground fog
would be minimal at best. Given the dry soundings, low
confidence in this occuring, and the very isolated nature of
any ground fog development have left fog out of the forecast for
tonight.

Set up is highly favorable for strong radiational cooling, and
continued the trend of showing low temperatures below guidance,
especially so for the Outer Banks. Given currently observed Tds
in the 40s and 50s and no apparent low level moisture advection
overnight, pushed forecast lows a couple degrees lower than the
prior forecast with more widespread 40s inland. Only fly in the
ointment is potential insulation from cirrus overhead, although
right now the only areas this could potentially impact are south
of Highway 70.

The forecast is close to record-breaking lows...see the CLIMATE
section for details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 425 PM Fri...Meteorological summer kicks off on a
slightly warmer but equally dry note as ridge continues to build
overhead and high pressure remains in place. Once again,
suspect guidance is running too high on Tds and knocked these
down a few degrees during the afternoon hours favoring
comfortable values in the low to mid 40s. With increasing low-
level heights, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s
inland, upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Cool high pressure remains over the area
through the weekend with below normal temperatures and low
humidity expected. Then, the high will slide offshore early next
week with a return to a summery pattern featuring daily
scattered afternoon thunderstorms and highs near normal.

Saturday and Sunday...High pressure will shift offshore Sunday.
Another cool night expected Saturday night due to strong
radiational cooling, and lows could reach the upper 50s to low
60s inland.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure will build offshore
early next week allowing for a return of summer-like warmth and
humidity. Increasing moisture will introduce a risk for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon with the best chances
for rain (~30%) Wednesday and Thursday as weak upper level
impulses move through a mostly zonal flow. Temps will return to
near normal, with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 each
day, and lows mostly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday night/...
As of 1255 AM Sat... Expecting VFR conditions and light winds
through the TAF period across ENC as high pressure builds
overhead this evening and on Saturday. A few minor things to
note in the aviation forecast. The first is the very low (less
than 10%) chance for some steam/ground fog. If fog were to occur
it would likely be between 09-12Z and at the EWN/PGV terminals
given their proximity to the nearby rivers. However, given the
very low threat have kept any fog mention out of the TAFs and
will continue to monitor trends tonight. The second will be the
potential for some gusty S`rly winds (around 15 kts) behind the
seabreeze Sat afternoon. Will likely hold off on any specific
mention of the seabreeze in the TAFs on this update but will
plan to include some mention of gusty S`rly winds (~15 kts) at
the TAF sites on the morning update. Finally as upper level
moisture finally begins to stream in from the S and W Sat
evening, expect some high clouds to build in Sat night though
with ceilings above 15 kft no impact is expected from the
incoming high clouds.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through
the long term as high pressure remains in place across the
region. However, strong overnight cooling this weekend could
result in the formation of patchy fog...bringing the threat of
sub-VFR visibilities to the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Tonight and Saturday/...
As of 915 PM Fri...No changes to previous thinking. Benign
boating conditions to develop over area waters as high pressure
expands over the area from the northwest. Earlier surge in winds
is beginning to diminish to 10-20 kt this evening with winds
forecast to continue diminishing overnight to 10 kt or less.
Winds will become largely light and variable on Saturday as the
high builds overhead. By the afternoon hours, sea breeze
circulations will become the dominant driver of surface flow
with south to southeasterly winds of 5-10 kt expected nearshore.

Currently observed seas of 2-3 feet will remain steady through
tonight, dropping to around 2 feet for all offshore waters by
Saturday (except 1-2 feet nearshore).

LONG TERM /Saturday PM through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Good boating conditions expected through the
weekend and into early next week with high pressure overhead.

Return flow develops Sunday with winds becoming SSW at 10-15
kts. Winds then briefly strengthen to 15-20 kts Sunday night
before returning to SW 10-15 kts Monday. Winds become southerly
at 5-10 kts on Tuesday. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low temps for June 1, Saturday.

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      48/1966  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 50/1966  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    45/1930  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 48/1984  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       42/1984  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  50/1966  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RCF
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...TL/SGK
AVIATION...JME/SGK/RCF
MARINE...JME/SGK/MS
CLIMATE...MHX