902
FXUS62 KMHX 101137
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
737 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push offshore early this morning an stall.
A few showers may linger along southern coastal sections
through tonight but otherwise expect dry conditions. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
afternoon. High pressure builds in mid to late week bringing
dry and hot conditions prevailing across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 730 AM Monday...The cold front has pushes south to near
Cape Lookout and the Crystal Coast this morning and will be
south of the region in the next hour to two. Initial batch of
showers has moved off the OBX but seeing another round of
showers across SE NC beginning to move into Duplin and Onslow
Counties which will continue to push across southern sections
through the morning hours. Made minor adjustments to PoP and
temp grids to capture latest trends, otherwise the forecast is
in good shape.

Previous discussion...An upper low will lift across the
Canadian Maritimes today with a positively tilted upper trough
extending across much of the eastern CONUS. Shortwave energy
moving through the flow aloft is bringing favorable jet dynamics
early this morning and seeing isolated to scattered showers
across the region. An attendant cold is currently pushing across
the area and will slide offshore around daybreak as will the
bulk of the showers. However, channeled vorticity will continue
to move through the flow aloft which may help trigger additional
showers across southern sections late this morning and
afternoon, mainly south of Highway 70. Rainfall amounts will be
light with totals mainly less than a tenth of an inch. A cooler
airmass builds in behind the front with highs mainly in the low
to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...Additional shortwave energy will move
through the upper trough tonight with a jet streak bringing
improved upper dynamics and expect to see showers and storms
reinvigorate off the coast. Some the showers may skirt coastal
sections south of Oregon Inlet but expect the rest of the FA to
remain dry. Winds will be light and could see patchy fog develop
if skies sufficiently clear. Guidance is showing the best
chances for fog to be south of the Pamlico River. Temps will be
seasonably warm with lows in the low to mid 60s inland and
around 70 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...
Key Points:
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, with highest chances
along the sea breeze.

- Increased fog potential early morning Wednesday

- Dry end to work week as high pressure dominates.

- Minor heat risk concerns Saturday

- Cold front moves through in the weekend

Tuesday...
Sea breeze sets up Tuesday in conjunction with a
positively tilted upper level trough moving through, providing
additional forcing. Moisture is confined to the lower levels (700mb
and below), but with the forcing and forecasted instability there is
a chance (~40%) of scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly
along the sea breeze. Temps remain pleasant Tuesday, with highs in
the mid 80s inland, low 80s for beaches and lower Tds ahead of the
sea breeze due to a drier airmass.

Tuesday night... Clear skies and calm winds bring fog concerns early
morning Wednesday. While there is plenty of margin for error given
it is 2 days away, early guidance is highlighting
Duplin/Onslow/Jones counties with the greatest radiational fog
threat. In addition, the sfc high located to our NW could bring 12-
18 hours of sustained NE`rly flow over NOBX, resulting in a
potential for sea fog. Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Wednesday to Sunday... The upper trough axis pushes offshore
Wednesday with sfc high pressure building in and NW downslope mid
level flow bringing drier conditions across the region. Kept out
mentionable PoPs through Saturday morning with the expansive mid-
level dry air set up over the region. A northern stream shortwave
pushes across the Mid-West and into the Mid- Atlantic late in the
week while and area of low pressure is progged to develop in the
Gulf of Mexico. There is significant uncertainty whether the
northern stream system will be able to tap into the Gulf moisture
and advect it across the Southeast coast or whether upper ridging
over the western Atlantic will shunt the moisture to our south and
west. A warming trend is expected late week with highs in the mid to
upper 80s Wednesday, steadily increasing through the week and
reaching the low-mid 90s Saturday. Tds will also be increasing
through the second half of the week as the high offshore helps
funnel some moisture in from warm waters. This will make apparent
temperatures in the upper 90s, near 100 degrees Saturday. High
pressure builds in again Sunday. behind a cold front sweeping in
from the north in the weekend. Rainfall associated with this front
is highly uncertain, with much of the long term after Thursday
dependent on how the gulf moisture interacts with the northern
trough.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Monday...Pred VFR conditions expected through this
evening. Isolated to scattered showers moving across southern
rtes this morning may bring brief sub-VFR conditions if heavier
showers develop but mainly expect them to remain offshore. Patchy
fog will be possible late tonight with better chances south of
the Pamlico River.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Sea breeze Tuesday will bring with it scattered
showers/thunderstorms. This could bring a period of lower ceilings
and reduced visibilities during the afternoon and evening Tuesday.
High pressure dominating Wednesday-Thursday will bring a period of
calm winds and clear/mostly clear skies overnight Tuesday night-
Thursday night. This increases the potential for sub-VFR conditions
due to fog, particularly during the early morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Monday...A cold front is pushing south of Cape
Lookout at this hour. Seeing a brief northerly surge behind the
front with gusts up to 25-30 kt immediately behind the front
which is expected to persist for only an hour or two and quickly
diminish to 10 kt or less by mid morning. In fact, the northern
waters have already diminished to below 5 kt. Winds will veer
to southerly and increase to around 10-15 kt mid to late
afternoon. Winds will continue to veer this evening to SW to W
around 10 kt or less after midnight. Seas expected to be around
2-3 ft but could see up to 4 ft early this morning.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Sub SCA conditions expected through the
long term with variable winds around 15 kt or less and seas
around 2-3 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ