281
FXUS62 KMHX 161750
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
150 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates the rest of the weekend into next week
resulting in dry and warm conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...A beautiful day today courtesy of
dewpoints in the 50s, with clear to partly cloudy skies and
temps in the upper 80s inland, near 80 for beaches. Strong
ridging will continue building in today and result in a warm,
dry forecast. Highs across the coastal plain will creep into the
low 90s with the beaches maxing out in the low-mid 80s. The
coolest spot will be along the NOBX where onshore flow will keep
highs around 80. Quiet conditions continue tonight due to the
strong ridge building in. Lows across the coastal plain will be
mild in the low to mid 60s while the OBX will be in the
comfortable low 70s. Scattered to broken high cirrus will linger
over ENC, but decent decoupling is still expected, resulting in
low temps leaning towards the lower end of guidance. A lack of
moisture should prevent widespread fog development.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Strong ridging and easterly flow continues
for Monday, with highs in the upper 80s inland, and near 80 for
beaches. Dewpoints will be a tad bit higher Monday compared to
today, but will still be pleasant.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Pleasant but dry weather through mid week, then
heat and humidity build at the end of the week through the
weekend.

Monday night through Wednesday...Strong ridging will build over
the eastern US through mid- week, which will bring cont rain-
free weather. The core of the ridging will remain north of ENC
initially, and thus keeping the intense heat to the north across
the Mid Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Northeast. For ENC, easterly
flow is expected, which will keep conditions tempered, and in
fact quite pleasant. Have bumped temps down a good 5 degrees or
so for Tue, as highs now expected in the mid-upr 80s interior,
to low 80s OBX. In addition, TD`s will be very tolerable, and
remain in the 60s. This will bring cool nights to the region,
with lows in the 60s away from the immediate coast, to low 70s
beaches and OBX zones. RH`s will be in the upper 30s to 40s each
day and could lead to marginal fire weather concerns, though
lack of strong winds will limit this from being more of a threat
even with the lack of rain recently.

Thursday through Saturday...There are still notable differences
in the long range models, but the consensus is that low pres
will develop east of the Bahamas and move west towards the
Southeast Coast (FL/GA). Center of upr ridge will slide
eastward a bit, allowing for more of a serly flow to develop and
bring inc heat and humidity starting Thu. PoPs remain below
mentionable Thursday, though by Fri into the weekend, some
chance of a return to typical afternoon/early evening sea breeze
convection. Even so, only 20% pops advertised, as no strong
forcing feature is noted on med range ensembles. Temps will be
on the rise, towards 90 on Thur, and into the 90s Fri into the
weekend. TD`s will rise steadily as well, and a potential for
heat indices into the upr 90s to low 100s by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday afternoon/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...Pred VFR through the period as strong
ridging builds in. Today, winds will be easterly at 5-10 kt with
a few/sct060 deck dissipating after sunset and some high
clouds. Overnight, winds will be light and skies will be mostly
clear, just some lingering high clouds, but impactful fog is not
expected given the lack of moisture.

LONG TERM /Monday evening through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Sun...VFR conditions expected through the period
with high pressure remaining dominant through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions through the period.
For the remainder of today, flow will be east/northeasterly at
10-15 kt with gusts close to 20 kt, mainly south of Cape
Hatteras and across the sounds, with 2-4 ft seas. 5 ft seas are
possible in the far outer central waters. Monday winds will
decrease a bit, with sustained east/northeasterly winds near 10
kts and gusts near 15 kts. Waves 2-4ft.

LONG TERM /Mon night through Thu/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Sub- SCA through the period with high pressure
anchored to the north of ENC. Light to moderate erly flow of
10-15 kt, ocnl gusts to 20 kt expected. Seas will generally be
2-4 ft through mid week. Low pres will develop east of the
Bahamas this week and approach the SE Coast (FL/GA) by mid week.
Some higher swell may approach and seas possibly exceeding 6 ft
Wed night into Thu for the ctrl/srn waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ