113
FXUS62 KMHX 231358
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
958 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains offshore today, with hot and humid
conditions expected. A front approaches on Monday, with another
front impacting the region on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 10 AM Sun...No significant changes needed to the previous
forecast for the morning update. High pressure will remain
offshore today as heat and humidity build across the region. Due
to a combination of contributing factors a Heat Advisory has
been issued for all of Eastern NC except the immediate coastal
zones where a strong sea breeze will limit the heat. High
temperatures will again reach the mid to upper 90s across the
coastal plain, while areas just to the east along the US 17
corridor top out in the low to mid 90s. Increasing low level
moisture and humidity will bring higher dewpoints to the coast
and prevent dewpoints from mixing out as much well inland. As a
result heat indices will rise above 100 degrees early this
afternoon and peak at 103-107 degrees by mid afternoon.

Otherwise, there will the threat of some isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing along and near the sea breeze. Winds
will also be increasing through the day as the pressure gradient
tightens in advance of a cold front, and winds could gust to
around 30 mph late this afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Breezy conditions continue tonight ahead of
a cold front, with warm and muggy conditions persisting
overnight. Temperatures will be slow to cool this evening due to
the wind and increasing cloud cover, and will only reach the
upper 70s for lows by tomorrow morning.

As the front approaches overnight there will be increasing
upper level support for the development of showers and
thunderstorms across the coastal waters. By early tomorrow
morning this scattered activity will move inland over the ENC
coast, with some isolated activity possible elsewhere over the
forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

 - Strong to severe thunderstorm risk Monday

 - Increased heat risk continues, especially mid to late-week

Synoptic Summary: Upper level troughing will dominate the Eastern
U.S. through mid to late-week, then upper level ridging begins to
expand east across the Southern U.S. by the weekend. At the surface,
a couple of cold fronts are forecast to move through the Carolinas,
one on Monday, and the other on Thursday.

Monday: Early Monday morning, a weak area of low pressure (the
remnants of the SW Atlantic tropical wave) may be skirting the
Crystal Coast and southern OBX with showers and thunderstorms. After
this wave moves away, a potent shortwave crossing the Northeast U.S.
will send a cold front southeast across ENC. This front will be
favorably timed with peak heating and the development of the
afternoon seabreeze, setting up a period of moderate low-level
forcing. Southerly flow ahead of the front will support dewpoints in
the 70s. Heating of the moist boundary layer should support moderate
instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg). Shear will be on the
marginal side (20-30kt), but still more than sufficient for
organized convection. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance have
been showing a solid signal for strong to severe thunderstorm
potential for days, and this trend has held. Given all of the above,
I expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the
day Monday, posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds.
Clustering of storms plus 2"+ PWATs will also favor a risk of very
heavy rain and minor flooding. It`s been very dry of late, though,
so the flash flood threat appears low, and mainly confined to urban
areas.

Higher humidity is expected on Monday which, at face value, would
continue to support a risk of dangerous heat across the area. While
this may still be the case, the increased risk of thunderstorms and
clouds may tend to offset the heat risk to some extent. Something to
watch, though, as it won`t take much pre-thunderstorm heating to
support advisory or near-advisory level heat impacts.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Guidance continue to suggest Monday`s front will
get enough of a push to get all the way through ENC, setting up a
less humid, and more stable, post-frontal airmass on Tuesday. Fronts
tend to get hung up this time of year, and the front should quickly
return north as a warm front Tuesday night. This will allow humidity
to return by Wednesday. Outside of the seabreeze, the convective
coverage looks to be low on Wednesday.

Thursday-Sunday: Continued southerly flow should once again support
higher dewpoints and humidity overlapped with above normal
temperatures and an increased risk of heat impacts. This will
especially be the case by the weekend with ridging overhead and a
lower risk of thunderstorms/clouds.

On Thursday, another decent cold front is forecast to move through
the area, and guidance continue to show a solid signal for another
round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some possibly on the
strong side. Outside of Thursday, it appears the convective coverage
will be closer to climo, and mainly seabreeze-driven.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday Morning/...
As of 715 AM Sun...A fairly large area of low level stratus
continues to persist over portions of ENC this morning, and is
producing a mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings. These low clouds will
quickly erode now that the sun is shining, and expect a return
to VFR conditions within the next hour or so. VFR conditions
then continue for the rest of the day with strengthening SW
winds during the afternoon to 20-30 kt through this evening.

Tonight, additional influx of low level moisture will make for
favorable conditions once again for low level stratus to form
across Eastern NC. Current guidance suggests a more widespread
area, though mostly 1000-2000 ft cloudbases, beginning around
midnight and lasting through sunrise Monday.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

 - Increased risk of TSRA and sub-VFR conditions Monday

A cold front will move through Monday with an increased risk of TSRA
and sub-VFR conditions. Where TSRA occur, there will be the
potential for 40kt+ gusts and hail. Predominantly VFR conditions are
then expected Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by another increased
risk of TSRA by Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 10 AM Sun...Latest obs show SW winds 10-15 kt with seas
2-3 ft. Deteriorating boating conditions expected today as
winds strengthen ahead of a cold front. SCAs are set to go into
effect for all marine zones and will continue into at least
tomorrow morning for most zones.

By this afternoon winds will increase to SW 20-25 kts with
gusts to 30 kts, and then peak late this evening at 25-30 kts
with some gusts 35 kts. The presence of a strengthening low
level jet overnight may cause a small couple hour period of Gale
Force winds/wind gusts, especially in and around any scattered
showers. Seas will build to 6 ft around sunset, and then
increase to 5-7 ft overnight.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

 - Elevated winds and seas linger into Monday

 - Increased thunderstorm risk on Monday

 - Elevated winds and seas return mid-week

A potent cold front will move through the waters Monday and will
feature an increased risk of thunderstorms. Ahead of the front,
elevated winds and seas will linger, with SCA conditions potentially
lasting into Monday afternoon. A post-frontal regime will briefly
setup on Tuesday with easterly winds of 5-15kt and lower seas.
Southerly flow then quickly returns by Wednesday and Thursday, with
building seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 330 AM Sun...

 - Elevated fire concerns possible this afternoon and evening

Southerly winds will strengthen this afternoon and gust 25-30 mph
through this evening. With moisture increasing, RH values will
remain elevated this afternoon, bottoming out only in the 40 to
50% range. However, given how dry it has been in the last few
weeks, the breezy conditions in the presence of drier fine fuels
is noteworthy, especially for any fire that manages to develop, or
any ongoing fires. Wetting rainfall is still possible on Monday
and again Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Monday for AMZ131-136-137-230.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Monday for AMZ135-150-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Monday for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/SGK
MARINE...RM/CQD/SGK
FIRE WEATHER...MHX