Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
951 FXUS63 KMKX 250241 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 941 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain potential has largely concluded across southern Wisconsin, with only a few sprinkles or very light showers possible near the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline through the rest of the evening. - A small potential for waterspouts persists over the southern half of Lake Michigan through tonight. - Areas of patchy fog are possible after midnight. - Mild and dry conditions prevail Wednesday through Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued 941 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The forecast remains largely on track as of mid-evening. Have made some minor adjustments to the near-term & overnight temperatures, as clearing skies away from Lake Michigan & light surface winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling. Expect temps to drop into the upper 40s in most locations away from the lakeshore & outside of the Milwaukee metro. The aforementioned radiational cooling will support patchy fog potential across the region during the predawn hours. Have inserted fog mentions into the weather grids given this possibility. Any fog development will quickly burn off after sunrise Wednesday morning. Slow down, use low beam headlights, and allow for extra following distance if encountering reduced visibilities on the roads early Wednesday morning. Quigley && .SHORT TERM... Issued 204 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Tonight through Wednesday night: Radar and mesoscale model trends are currently suggesting that the heavier rain potential will remain largely offshore this afternoon into the evening. Showers will persist in the eastern forecast area though given the swath of deeper moisture and some lingering forcing, as low pressure slides by to the southeast. Skies will very gradually clear out west to east tonight into early Wednesday, as high pressure builds in from the west. With the recent rainfall and light winds in place, there may be some fog tonight, especially west of Madison. Afternoon cumulus will be possible tomorrow, but otherwise, there should be plenty of sunshine across the area by late morning. Highs tomorrow are expected to be a couple degrees above normal. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 204 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Thursday through Tuesday: High pressure is expected to keep it dry across southern Wisconsin through at least Friday. Mostly sunny skies are likely again Thursday, with some increase in clouds from the south possible Friday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Helene may approach the area. There is uncertainty with precip chances over the weekend, which will largely be dependent on the track and northward progress of the remnants of Helene. Kept some low end precip chances going for now given the potential for some of the tropical moisture to make it this far north. Latest model guidance has trended towards a drier weekend though, with high pressure largely remaining in control across the Great Lakes. Kept some precip chances going into early next week, as models show a shortwave and cold front moving through by Monday night or Tuesday. There is high confidence in continued above normal temps through Friday, with decreasing confidence into the weekend due to the uncertainty with the tropical system. Temps will likely turn cooler early to mid-week next week as the trough and front move through. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 941 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions are becoming predominant across southern Wisconsin this evening, with MVFR cigs hanging on over far southeastern portions of the area. Have accounted for these trends in recent updates. While KENW is currently reporting VFR conditions, nearby MVFR obs at KRAC have motivated continued MVFR mentions through 05Z. Will continue to monitor trends and adjust the forecast as necessary. Areas of patchy fog are possible overnight, with impacts near KJVL possible. Any FG development will quickly dissipate after sunrise Wednesday. VFR conditions prevail through the remainder of the period. Quigley && .MARINE... Issued 204 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Low pressure centered near the southern tip of Lake Michigan this afternoon will lift northeast into lower Michigan this evening, reaching Lake Huron by Wednesday morning. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will persist into tonight, particularly across the southern half of the lake where there is also a small chance for waterspouts through tonight. The low will continue to head northeastward tomorrow, as high pressure builds in from the west. Breezy easterly winds this afternoon will become northerly as the low moves away tonight, with breezy northerly winds persisting on Wednesday. Somewhat lighter east to northeast winds are likely on Thursday as the high strengthens a bit and moves overhead. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee