530
FXUS63 KMKX 241904
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
204 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers persisting into this evening, mainly across far
  southeast Wisconsin

- A small potential for waterspouts over southern Lake MI
  through tonight

- Mild and Dry conditions for Wed-Fri

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 204 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Radar and mesoscale model trends are currently suggesting that
the heavier rain potential will remain largely offshore this
afternoon into the evening. Showers will persist in the eastern
forecast area though given the swath of deeper moisture and some
lingering forcing, as low pressure slides by to the southeast.
Skies will very gradually clear out west to east tonight into
early Wednesday, as high pressure builds in from the west. With
the recent rainfall and light winds in place, there may be some
fog tonight, especially west of Madison. Afternoon cumulus will
be possible tomorrow, but otherwise, there should be plenty of
sunshine across the area by late morning. Highs tomorrow are
expected to be a couple degrees above normal.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 204 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Thursday through Tuesday:

High pressure is expected to keep it dry across southern
Wisconsin through at least Friday. Mostly sunny skies are likely
again Thursday, with some increase in clouds from the south
possible Friday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Helene may
approach the area. There is uncertainty with precip chances over
the weekend, which will largely be dependent on the track and
northward progress of the remnants of Helene. Kept some low end
precip chances going for now given the potential for some of the
tropical moisture to make it this far north. Latest model
guidance has trended towards a drier weekend though, with high
pressure largely remaining in control across the Great Lakes.
Kept some precip chances going into early next week, as models
show a shortwave and cold front moving through by Monday night
or Tuesday.

There is high confidence in continued above normal temps through
Friday, with decreasing confidence into the weekend due to the
uncertainty with the tropical system. Temps will likely turn
cooler early to mid-week next week as the trough and front move
through.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 204 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Lower ceilings and shower chances will linger into this evening,
especially towards Lake Michigan, as slow moving low pressure
passes by to the southeast of Wisconsin. Skies will gradually
clear out west to east tonight into Wednesday as the low departs
and high pressure builds in from the west. Light north to
northeast winds most places this afternoon (aside from breezier
conditions near the lake), will gradually become north to
northwest tonight into Wednesday as the low exits the area.
Could see some fog tonight into early Wednesday for areas mainly
west of Madison due to light winds and clearing skies.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 204 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Low pressure centered near the southern tip of Lake Michigan
this afternoon will lift northeast into lower Michigan this
evening, reaching Lake Huron by Wednesday morning. Showers and a
few rumbles of thunder will persist into tonight, particularly
across the southern half of the lake where there is also a small
chance for waterspouts through tonight.

The low will continue to head northeastward tomorrow, as high
pressure builds in from the west. Breezy easterly winds this
afternoon will become northerly as the low moves away tonight,
with breezy northerly winds persisting on Wednesday. Somewhat
lighter east to northeast winds are likely on Thursday as the
high strengthens a bit and moves overhead.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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