Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
693 FXUS63 KMKX 101953 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers/thunderstorms tomorrow evening (30-40% chance), followed by better chances Wednesday evening and again on Thursday (40-60%). - Warmer and more humid Wednesday and Thursday. - Indications of a significant warm up for next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Tonight through Tuesday night: A pleasant day is underway this afternoon, with highs in the 60s and 70s under sunny skies. A lake breeze will continue to advance westward through the rest of the afternoon. High pressure will continue to build into the area, setting the stage for cool overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s. The high will move eastward on Tuesday, with southerly winds developing Tuesday morning. Shortwave energy over the Northern Plains will serve as the focus for showers and thunderstorms to our west tomorrow morning and early afternoon, which will then move into the forecast area during the second half of the afternoon and into the evening. These should be diminishing as they progress eastward, given waning lift and an increasingly dry airmass with eastward extent. Showers and storms should gradually end during the late evening and overnight hours. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Wednesday through Monday: A more summer-like airmass returns to the area for Wednesday, with highs expected to be in the 80s, with dewpoints gradually rising through the 60s during the day. More robust thunderstorm development is expected across Minnesota and Iowa during the late afternoon, with that activity advancing eastward into the forecast area during the evening hours. Depending on the degree of instability that is able to develop ahead of these storms, they may still pose a severe threat by the time they make into the area, but overall the more widespread risk should remain to our west and northwest. The remnant convection from Wednesday evening is expected to leave an outflow boundary in the area Wednesday night, which may then become a source for convective initiation on Thursday, with the main synoptic front eventually catching up with the prior outflow as it gets nudged southward by a shortwave over northern Wisconsin. This convection could certainly pose a severe risk, but the overall threat on Thursday will be highly dependent on things evolve on Wedensday. Cooler and drier air builds into the region Friday and Saturday, before southerly flow returns for the start of next week. Deep ridging over the central US will favor above to well above average temperatures across the region, with the CPC 6-10 Day outlook indicating a greater than 80% chance for above average temperatures. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions will persist through tonight and much of the day tomorrow. High pressure will bring light and variable winds overnight, with winds becoming southerly to southwesterly Tuesday morning. Clear skies are expected through tonight, with just mid and high level clouds through early afternoon on Tuesday. Boxell && .MARINE... Issued 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Light and variable winds are expected tonight as high pressure builds into the area. Winds will become southerly on Tuesday as the high moves eastward ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure. South to southwest winds will then hang on through at least Wednesday, eventually becoming northerly by the end of the week behind a trough and ahead of an approaching area of high pressure. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee