693
FXUS63 KMKX 101953
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
253 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers/thunderstorms tomorrow evening (30-40% chance),
  followed by better chances Wednesday evening and again on
  Thursday (40-60%).

- Warmer and more humid Wednesday and Thursday.

- Indications of a significant warm up for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night:

A pleasant day is underway this afternoon, with highs in the 60s
and 70s under sunny skies. A lake breeze will continue to
advance westward through the rest of the afternoon. High
pressure will continue to build into the area, setting the stage
for cool overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s.

The high will move eastward on Tuesday, with southerly winds
developing Tuesday morning. Shortwave energy over the Northern
Plains will serve as the focus for showers and thunderstorms to
our west tomorrow morning and early afternoon, which will then
move into the forecast area during the second half of the
afternoon and into the evening. These should be diminishing as
they progress eastward, given waning lift and an increasingly
dry airmass with eastward extent. Showers and storms should
gradually end during the late evening and overnight hours.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Wednesday through Monday:

A more summer-like airmass returns to the area for Wednesday,
with highs expected to be in the 80s, with dewpoints gradually
rising through the 60s during the day. More robust thunderstorm
development is expected across Minnesota and Iowa during the
late afternoon, with that activity advancing eastward into the
forecast area during the evening hours. Depending on the degree
of instability that is able to develop ahead of these storms,
they may still pose a severe threat by the time they make into
the area, but overall the more widespread risk should remain to
our west and northwest.

The remnant convection from Wednesday evening is expected to
leave an outflow boundary in the area Wednesday night, which
may then become a source for convective initiation on Thursday,
with the main synoptic front eventually catching up with the
prior outflow as it gets nudged southward by a shortwave over
northern Wisconsin. This convection could certainly pose a
severe risk, but the overall threat on Thursday will be highly
dependent on things evolve on Wedensday.

Cooler and drier air builds into the region Friday and Saturday,
before southerly flow returns for the start of next week.
Deep ridging over the central US will favor above to well above
average temperatures across the region, with the CPC 6-10 Day
outlook indicating a greater than 80% chance for above average
temperatures.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions will persist through tonight and much of the day
tomorrow. High pressure will bring light and variable winds
overnight, with winds becoming southerly to southwesterly
Tuesday morning. Clear skies are expected through tonight, with
just mid and high level clouds through early afternoon on
Tuesday.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Light and variable winds are expected tonight as high pressure
builds into the area. Winds will become southerly on Tuesday as
the high moves eastward ahead of an approaching trough of low
pressure. South to southwest winds will then hang on through at
least Wednesday, eventually becoming northerly by the end of the
week behind a trough and ahead of an approaching area of high
pressure.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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