421
FXUS63 KMKX 142001
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
301 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like warmth continues through the rest of the weekend
  into the upcoming work week. Daytime highs will range between
  five and fifteen degrees above normal.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue to trend down today
  and tomorrow, with only slight (~15-20%) precip chances
  forecast near the Wisconsin River.

- Dry conditions prevail through the upcoming week, with the
  next chance for showers and storms not arriving until next
  weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 301 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Tonight through Sunday night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Early afternoon surface observations place an
area of high pressure near the Quebec-Maine border. Southeasterly
flow prevails across southern Wisconsin, which finds itself
positioned along the western periphery of the aforementioned surface
high. The mild southeasterly flow & mostly sunny skies have allowed
for another afternoon of efficient surface heating regionally, with
many locations away from the lakeshore currently reporting temps in
the low to mid 80s. In the mid-upper portions of the atmosphere, the
state finds itself positioned between longwave ridging centered over
the Lake Huron vicinity, and upper troughing extending the Canadian
Prairie Provinces to the Northern Plains. South-southwest mid-upper
winds thus prevail across the region. Several disturbances are
progged to pivot through the aforementioned south-southwesterly
flow, particularly this afternoon and evening. Lift affiliated with
the perturbations will encourage isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms primarily west of the Wisconsin River
through early this evening. Above normal temperatures will continue
on Sunday, with the afternoon update continuing to trend toward a
precip-free final day of the weekend.

Rest Of Today & Tonight: An isolated shower/thunderstorm can`t be
ruled out through early evening as an upper shortwave migrates from
the Mississippi River toward the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. These
small chances are currently reflected in regional radar data, which
depict a scattering of light echoes from Richland Center toward La
Crosse. Given the positioning & track of the responsible
perturbation largely to the northwest of the area, have kept slight
chance (15-20%) precip probs confined exclusively to the west of the
I-39 Corridor. Severe weather is not expected in any
showers/thunderstorms that clip our far western counties. Similar to
previous overnight periods, patchy ground fog is possible along the
Kettle Moraine during the predawn hours. Have accounted for this
potential in the afternoon update, though no appreciable impacts are
anticipated.

Sunday: Well above normal temperatures continue. AM model guidance
suggests an entirely dry day across the region, which appears
reasonable given an absence of mid-level forcing mechanisms. Have
thus favored the consensus of dry solutions and removed all
mentionable precip probs from western counties tomorrow
afternoon.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 301 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Monday through Saturday:

Synopsis: Upper high pressure will continue to persist across the
Great Lakes through at least the middle portions of the upcoming
work week. Attendant surface high pressure will continue to linger
off the northeastern coast of the CONUS, helping to maintain mild
south to southeast surface flow across southern Wisconsin. Well
above-normal, summer-like warmth will thus continue through the
duration of the long term period. An upper low will eject from the
Rockies into the Northern Plains on Wednesday, though its subsequent
track into central Canada will keep focused ascent for
showers/storms away from the region. A second wave will eject into
the south-central Plains during the late week time period, bringing
additional chances for showers and storms to central portions of the
CONUS. Global guidance suggests that this second trough & its
attendant precip footprint could pull closer to the region by next
weekend, when mentionable precip chances return to the forecast.

Monday Through Thursday: Above-normal temperatures continue. Expect
that multiple bouts of showers and storms will occur to our west
with an upper trough ejecting into the Northern Plains. Stagnating
upper high pressure in place across the Great Lakes, however,
appears poised to steer forcing for precip well away from the area &
into central Canada. A dry forecast thus prevails through mid-late
week.

Friday Through Saturday: Above-normal temperatures will continue to
persist. Periods of showers and storms will occur over the central
CONUS as a second shortwave ejects into the south-central Plains.
Current guidance hints that this feature, and the forcing for precip
affiliated with it, could pull close enough to the region to support
showers/storms by next weekend. Mentionable precip probs thus return
to the forecast on Saturday.

Quigley

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 301 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the period at all
southern Wisconsin terminals. SCT low to mid-level cumulus will
continue to develop through peak heating away from the Lake Michigan
shoreline. Fair weather cumulus will dissipate this evening as SCT-
BKN mid-level clouds gradually thicken from west to east. Patchy
ground fog is possible along the Kettle Moraine approaching daybreak
Sunday. As observed this morning, said ground fog could bring
impacts to SBM and UES early tomorrow morning, though forecast
confidence is currently too low to justify any prevailing FG
mentions. Trends will be monitored through the overnight period,
with FG insertions being made should conditions warrant. Primarily
east-southeast winds are expected at all fields, with east-northeast
wind shifts anticipated behind the lake breeze this afternoon at
ENW, MKE, and SBM.

Quigley

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 301 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Winds will remain predominantly south to southeasterly through the
duration of the period as 1026 mb high pressure migrates from Quebec
into the northeastern United States. 992 mb low pressure will
develop over the northern Great Plains by the middle of the week,
reinforcing the south-southeasterly flow pattern across the lake.
Brief bouts of east to northeasterly winds are possible primarily
during the afternoon periods as the lake breezes advance out & away
from the open waters. Precip-free conditions are expected through
the majority of the week, with rain chances potentially returning by
next weekend.

Quigley

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee