683
FXUS63 KMKX 171445
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
945 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like warmth continues through the week. Daytime highs
  will range between five and fifteen degrees above normal.

- Dry conditions prevail through Thursday, then chances for
  showers and storms Thursday night and Friday. More chances at
  times Saturday into Monday.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 945 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Forecast remains on track today, with temperatures expected to
rise rapidly with plenty of sunshine this morning. A few spots
in southwestern Wisconsin may reach close to 90 degrees this
afternoon. Dry conditions prevail, with RH values in the 25 to
35 percent range during the afternoon. However, a lake breeze
pushing inland may bring slightly higher humidity to lakeshore
counties.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Today through Wednesday:

Ground fog continues to occur in the usual low areas east of the
Kettle Moraine, and should linger until after sunrise. This
should occur again later tonight into early Wednesday morning,
with the persistent pattern lingering.

Otherwise, a narrow 500 mb ridge axis will remain across the
region today into Wednesday. This will keep light south to
southeast winds across the area, with dry conditions lingering.
Very warm temperatures will remain as well, with highs in the
middle to upper 80s inland, and around 80 near Lake Michigan.

Lowered dew points today into Wednesday with CONSMOS values as
a starting point, given the persistent dry conditions. This will
bring very low relative humidity values of 25 to 35 percent
this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Wednesday night through Monday:

The 500 mb ridge axis will shift to the east Wednesday night
into Thursday, with more zonal flow pushing into the region
Thursday night into Friday. There is some possibility of a
shortwave trough shifting through the area later Thursday night
into Friday morning. South to southwesterly low level jet points
into the area during this time, with some focused warm air
advection. The low level frontogenesis that approaches from the
west with the weakening front is modest at best.

Forecast soundings are showing tall skinny elevated CAPE as
well. Ensembles are also showing several members with measurable
rainfall later Thursday night into Friday, especially in
western parts of the area. There may be some difficulty with
rainfall further east, as this area will be drier and may take
more time to moisten up.

For now, used NBM PoPs for this period, with highest values in
the western parts of the area later Thursday night and lingering
in the east on Friday. The rainfall will be relatively light,
but anything will be welcome given the dry conditions over the
past few weeks.

Ensembles continue to show a potentially more active weather
pattern this weekend into Monday, with periodic chances for
showers and some thunderstorms. There is still a fair amount of
uncertainty with PoPs during this time, though about three
quarters of the members are now showing measurable precipitation
for most of this period. Kept NBM PoPs for this period for now.
Temperatures should remain well above normal into this weekend,
as ensembles remain confident with highs into the 80s most
days.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 945 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VRF conditions expected throughout today, with a few clouds
between 10,000 and 25,000 ft. Patchy ground fog is expected west
of the Kettle Moraine again overnight tonight and may produce
reductions in visibility in low lying areas.

Southeasterly winds are expected today, with a more easterly
component in the afternoon at lakeshore terminals with a lake
breeze. This lake breeze may traverse inland through KUES during
the late afternoon to evening hours.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

High pressure around 30.2 inches over the Northeast and low
pressure around 29.3 inches over eastern Montana will remain
fairly stationary into Wednesday. The high will weaken to around
30.0 inches Thursday, with the low strengthening to around 29.2
inches. Light to modest south to southeast winds are generally
expected over the lake during this time. Low pressure may
approach the region sometime this weekend.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee