635
FXUS62 KMLB 310908
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
508 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Key Messages:

- Below normal rain chances will continue. Shower chances will
  mainly focus along the Treasure Coast this weekend.

- Deteriorating boating conditions beginning this afternoon as
  onshore winds increase.

Today...High pressure over OH early this morning will build
Southward and produce a breezy NE wind flow this afternoon. This
will push a diffuse east coast sea breeze quickly inland and focus
the bulk of afternoon storms on the western side of the FL
peninsula. So rain/storm chances are quite low here in ECFL, only
20% over the far interior. Max temps will hold in the mid to upper
80s coast warming into the lower 90s interior. The only chance to
equal a record high today will be at LEE (95F 2004) and that looks
a bit out of reach. Northeast winds will increase 15-20 mph with
gusts near 30 mph this afternoon.

For the weekend, The high pressure will push SE and off the
Carolina coast Sat then push seaward Sun with a trailing ridge
axis extending westward across north FL. The wind flow will veer
Easterly and remain quite breezy Sat, even windy at the coast
15-25 mph with some higher gusts. On Sun, the pressure gradient
eases as the high moves away and its ridge axis settles closer to
the area so not quite as breezy. While a mostly dry airmass will
remain in place, there should be enough moisture across southern
sections to produce isolated to scattered showers (20-30%) moving
onshore the Treasure coast. Max temps will be very close to
seasonable with mid to upper 80s coast and lower 90s inland. But
the persistent onshore flow will produce smaller diurnal temp
ranges along the coast, keeping min temps there in the mid 70s,
possibly upper 70s. Next week, the dry airmass will gradually
modify with rain/storm chances slowly increasing 20-30 percent
Mon, 30-50 percent Tue-Thu. Temperatures will also begin a slow
climb, returning to the mid 90s interior Wed-Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes this morning will drop
southeast and off the Carolina coast Saturday. The high pressure
will push seaward with a trailing ridge axis extending westward
across north Florida into early next week. Freshening northeast
winds this afternoon will increase 15-20 knots and produce
deteriorating boating conditions which necessitates a Caution
headline for most of the marine zones this aftn. The pressure
gradient will be tightest across the southern waters and will
support 20 knots tonight through Sat so have raised a Small Craft
Adv south of Sebastian Inlet. Conditions will gradually improve
Sunday through Tuesday as the trailing ridge axis settles across
north FL and eases the easterly pressure gradient which will still
support 10-15 knots. Seas building to 3-5 feet by late afternoon
today, reaching 6-7 FT in the Gulf Stream south of the Cape
tonight and Sat. Seas will fall below 5 FT offshore Sunday. Seas
3-4 FT Mon and 2-3 FT Tue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Breezy Northeast winds will develop today, becoming East
Saturday. Rain chances will be below normal through the weekend.
The best chance for showers will be along the Treasure coast. Min
RH values will hover near 35% across interior sections each
afternoon while holding between 45% and 55% along the coast. The
increase in wind speeds, 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph,
will produce Very Good to Excellent dispersion values and combined
with dry fuels will produce very sensitive fire weather
conditions today and Saturday across all of east central Florida.
Any new or ongoing fires may spread rapidly. Scattered showers and
storms should increase in coverage next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR and mostly dry conditions are expected. Light and variable
winds will increase into the mid-morning from the ENE at 10-12kts
and into this afternoon at 14-16kts with gusts to 22-26kts. Winds
will gradually reduce late this evening and into the overnight
hours. VCSH remains in the forecast at KLEE and KISM this
afternoon with showers/storms expected mainly over west Florida.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  71  85  70 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  91  71  88  68 /  10  10  10   0
MLB  88  74  85  73 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  88  73  86  71 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  92  71  89  69 /  10  10   0   0
SFB  90  70  88  68 /  10  10   0   0
ORL  91  71  88  70 /  10  10  10   0
FPR  88  72  86  71 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Fehling