748
FXUS62 KMLB 281122
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
722 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Light and variable winds becoming westerly today around 10 knots
after 15Z. Increasing rain and storm chances today as a weak
front approaches and the east coast sea breeze develops and moves
inland. Added TEMPOs in with this package to account for best
chances for TSRA, with at least MVFR VIS and CIGs expected.
Further amendments may be needed to timing as the picture becomes
clearer. Activity will diminish across the interior terminals as
showers and storms move offshore. Continued VCSH after 21Z along
the coast until about 03Z. Winds becoming light and variable at
all terminals overnight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

- Heat continues with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper
  90s and heat indices 100 to 105 into mid-week

- Rain and storm chances increase from mid morning into the
  afternoon today

- Daytime rain showers and thunderstorms persist into this
  weekend

Today-Tonight...A weak cool front will enter north Florida today,
before stalling north of east central Florida into tonight. This
feature will aid a passing mid-level shortwave in developing
scattered showers and thunderstorms into this afternoon, with the
east coast sea breeze acting to enhance convection near the coast.
PWATs today are forecast between 1.75-2", providing ample moisture
for showers and storms to develop. A limiting factor, however,
will be drier air aloft. While dry air could hinder updraft growth
today, any storms that do develop will be capable of strong wind
gusts to around 50mph, thanks to DCAPE values 1100-1400J/kg. The
hail threat will be limited by 500mb temperatures only around -7C.
CAMs suggest showers and storms pushing southward from north
Florida this morning into early afternoon. Then, meeting the east
coast sea breeze from around the Cape southward later this
afternoon into this evening. PoPs today around 30-40% along and
north of I-4 and 50% to the south.

Westerly winds will prevail today, helping to keep the late-
developing east coast sea breeze pinned to the coastal counties
this afternoon. Thus, little relief is forecast from high
temperatures forecast once again in the mid to upper 90s, with
heat indices 100-105. A few records could be threatened today,
mainly at Melbourne, Vero Beach, and Fort Pierce. See the Climate
section for more details.

Convection is forecast to linger along the coast this evening,
mainly along the Space and Treasure Coasts, before pushing
offshore into tonight. Once convection moves into the Atlantic
waters, dry conditions are then forecast for the remainder of the
overnight hours. Overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s.

Wednesday-Friday...The weak front is forecast to push southward
into the local area Wednesday, then linger through the remainder
of the work week. Energy pulses aloft will maintain daily shower
and thunderstorm chances. However, PoPs through the period will
remain around 40% or less, as drier air provides a limiting factor
for convection. In addition, developing onshore flow will aid the
east coast sea breeze, with the daily collision occurring over
central Florida Wednesday, then west central Florida late week.
Temperatures will remain well above normal, with highs in the mid
to upper 90s persisting. Will start to see some relief late week,
though, thanks to onshore flow. By Thursday and Friday, coastal
areas look to remain in the lower 90s. Overnight lows in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Saturday-Monday...High pressure building into the western Atlantic
will finally shunt the lingering cool front into southern Florida
this weekend. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
remain possible. However, drier air will continue to be a limiting
factor. Also, a tightening pressure gradient as the ridge develops
will increase onshore flow, preventing inland progression of the
west coast sea breeze and, therefore, a collision near the CWA.
Temperatures will become more seasonal, reaching the upper 80s
along the coast and lower 90s inland. Overnight, temperatures will
remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Today-Tonight...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
today, mainly during the afternoon and into the evening hours, as
a weak cool front approaches the area. A few storms could produce
strong wind gusts. Otherwise, favorable boating conditions
prevailing, with winds remaining under 12kts. Offshore winds this
morning will back south/southeasterly this afternoon as the sea
breeze develops. Then, winds will once again become offshore
overnight. Seas 1-3ft.

Wednesday-Saturday...The aforementioned front will linger around
the area through the week, continuing shower and thunderstorm
chances each day. However, will see generally favorable boating
conditions persist, as onshore winds remain below 15kts through
the work week. By Saturday, though, high pressure building into
the western Atlantic is forecast to increase winds to up to
15-20kts, leading to poor boating conditions. Seas 1-3ft fore most
of the period building to up to 4ft on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  72  91  70 /  30  10  10   0
MCO  94  74  96  71 /  40  10  10   0
MLB  94  74  91  73 /  50  30  20  10
VRB  95  72  92  72 /  50  40  20  10
LEE  92  73  95  71 /  30   0  10   0
SFB  95  73  96  71 /  30  10  10   0
ORL  94  74  97  73 /  40  10  10   0
FPR  95  72  92  71 /  50  40  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Tollefsen