247
FXUS62 KMLB 280757
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
357 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

- Heat continues with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper
  90s and heat indices 100 to 105 into mid-week

- Rain and storm chances increase from mid morning into the
  afternoon today

- Daytime rain showers and thunderstorms persist into this
  weekend

Today-Tonight...A weak cool front will enter north Florida today,
before stalling north of east central Florida into tonight. This
feature will aid a passing mid-level shortwave in developing
scattered showers and thunderstorms into this afternoon, with the
east coast sea breeze acting to enhance convection near the coast.
PWATs today are forecast between 1.75-2", providing ample moisture
for showers and storms to develop. A limiting factor, however,
will be drier air aloft. While dry air could hinder updraft growth
today, any storms that do develop will be capable of strong wind
gusts to around 50mph, thanks to DCAPE values 1100-1400J/kg. The
hail threat will be limited by 500mb temperatures only around -7C.
CAMs suggest showers and storms pushing southward from north
Florida this morning into early afternoon. Then, meeting the east
coast sea breeze from around the Cape southward later this
afternoon into this evening. PoPs today around 30-40% along and
north of I-4 and 50% to the south.

Westerly winds will prevail today, helping to keep the late-
developing east coast sea breeze pinned to the coastal counties
this afternoon. Thus, little relief is forecast from high
temperatures forecast once again in the mid to upper 90s, with
heat indices 100-105. A few records could be threatened today,
mainly at Melbourne, Vero Beach, and Fort Pierce. See the Climate
section for more details.

Convection is forecast to linger along the coast this evening,
mainly along the Space and Treasure Coasts, before pushing
offshore into tonight. Once convection moves into the Atlantic
waters, dry conditions are then forecast for the remainder of the
overnight hours. Overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s.

Wednesday-Friday...The weak front is forecast to push southward
into the local area Wednesday, then linger through the remainder
of the work week. Energy pulses aloft will maintain daily shower
and thunderstorm chances. However, PoPs through the period will
remain around 40% or less, as drier air provides a limiting factor
for convection. In addition, developing onshore flow will aid the
east coast sea breeze, with the daily collision occurring over
central Florida Wednesday, then west central Florida late week.
Temperatures will remain well above normal, with highs in the mid
to upper 90s persisting. Will start to see some relief late week,
though, thanks to onshore flow. By Thursday and Friday, coastal
areas look to remain in the lower 90s. Overnight lows in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Saturday-Monday...High pressure building into the western Atlantic
will finally shunt the lingering cool front into southern Florida
this weekend. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
remain possible. However, drier air will continue to be a limiting
factor. Also, a tightening pressure gradient as the ridge develops
will increase onshore flow, preventing inland progression of the
west coast sea breeze and, therefore, a collision near the CWA.
Temperatures will become more seasonal, reaching the upper 80s
along the coast and lower 90s inland. Overnight, temperatures will
remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Today-Tonight...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
today, mainly during the afternoon and into the evening hours, as
a weak cool front approaches the area. A few storms could produce
strong wind gusts. Otherwise, favorable boating conditions
prevailing, with winds remaining under 12kts. Offshore winds this
morning will back south/southeasterly this afternoon as the sea
breeze develops. Then, winds will once again become offshore
overnight. Seas 1-3ft.

Wednesday-Saturday...The aforementioned front will linger around
the area through the week, continuing shower and thunderstorm
chances each day. However, will see generally favorable boating
conditions persist, as onshore winds remain below 15kts through
the work week. By Saturday, though, high pressure building into
the western Atlantic is forecast to increase winds to up to
15-20kts, leading to poor boating conditions. Seas 1-3ft fore most
of the period building to up to 4ft on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Today...Sensitive fire weather conditions persist today, as min RH
values fall to 35-45% for much of the area today. Increased shower
and thunderstorm chances (up to 30-50%), mainly during the
afternoon hours, will do little to provide relief from hot high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Westerly winds prevail today,
though will see winds back east to southeast this afternoon as
the sea breeze develops but remains pinned near the coast. High
mixing heights will lead to another day of excellent dispersion,
with control issues likely.

Wednesday-Friday...Drier air moving into the area mid to late week
will lead to very sensitive fire weather conditions as min RH
values dip to as low as 25-30% over the interior, especially
Wednesday and Thursday. Coastal areas will remain between 35-50%.
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day. Fortunately,
wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15mph, as northerly
winds early Wednesday veer onshore and remain that way through the
period. Dispersion will remain excellent, so control issues will
likely persist.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Hot afternoon temperatures today will once again threaten a few
records, mainly along the coast from Melbourne southward. The
current record high temperatures around the area are as follows:

              Record
               High   Year

Daytona Beach   99    2000
Leesburg        98    2000
Sanford        100    1953
Orlando         99    2000
Melbourne       97    2000
Vero Beach      96    1967
Fort Pierce     95    2000

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to continue across the terminals early
this morning with winds remaining light and variable. Winds will
pick up out of the west at 5 to 10 knots across all terminals
today, with some places along the coast gusting up to 15 knots at
times. An approaching weak frontal boundary combined with the
east coast sea breeze will lead to increasing rain and storm
chances across the area after 12Z, with VCSH and VCTS possible at
all terminals. Will likely need to add in TEMPOs with the next
forecast package as confidence in timing of storms increases.
Lingering VCSH will be possible until around 03Z along the coastal
terminals from the Cape southward. Activity will then diminish
after 03Z, with winds becoming light and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  72  91  70 /  30  10  10   0
MCO  94  74  96  71 /  40  10  10   0
MLB  94  74  91  73 /  50  30  20  10
VRB  95  72  92  72 /  50  40  20  10
LEE  92  73  95  71 /  30   0  10   0
SFB  95  73  96  71 /  30  10  10   0
ORL  94  74  97  73 /  40  10  10   0
FPR  95  72  92  71 /  50  40  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Tollefsen