Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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032 FXUS64 KMOB 050450 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1150 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms redevelop Wednesday afternoon with brief reductions in ceilings and visbys. /13 && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024/ New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 422 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 We will see a continuation of a series of impulses/shortwave energy moving in a westerly flow aloft to aid in the trigger for mainly diurnal convection. The next main shortwave approaching the Mississippi River has resulted in a rather impressive MCS across Louisiana that will advance eastward across southern Mississippi this afternoon, and then into the northwest quadrant of our forecast area early this evening. At this time the CAMs are showing this system dissipating before midnight. In the meantime, the ongoing scattered convection across southwest Alabama will continue into early evening prior to the arrival of the weakening MCS. Low temperatures tonight fall into the upper 60s and mid 70s. With high temperatures Wednesday climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s and with an even stronger shortwave moving in from the west, isolated to scattered showers and storms near the coast in the morning will once again expand inland in the afternoon. With the approach of the upper shortwave, the CAMs are showing yet another MCS pushing across the ArkLaTex region in the morning, and moving fairly quickly across Louisiana southern Mississippi in the afternoon. At this time it looks like this system will advance into the entire forecast area through the overnight hours. It does appear that deep layer shear will be a bit stronger with this system, which could bolster a better threat for strong to severe storms. /22 SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 422 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Similar pattern continues through the short term period, but models do indicate the potential for a stronger shortwave aloft to move across our area and Thursday morning. This will result in a less diurnal pattern, with chances for showers and storms remaining higher Wednesday night, and continuing into Thursday. SPC just has general thunderstorms forecast for our entire area Wednesday night, but with the strength of the shortwave energy aloft there could again be a few strong to briefly severe storms (especially Wednesday evening/overnight) and again Thursday afternoon when instabilities are greatest. We will continue to monitor for this potential. Rain chances will be lower on Thursday night, and mainly confined to coastal locations. Lows both Wednesday and Thursday nights will range from lower 70s inland to middle 70s down along the coast. Highs on Thursday are expected to be mainly in the mid to upper 80s, but a few lower 90s possible over inland areas. DS/12 LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 422 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Northwesterly flow aloft will continue through the weekend as an upper trough lifts into the western Atlantic and an upper ridge persists to our west. Guidance continues to indicate drier air moving in on Saturday in the wake of the front with PWATs briefly falling to around an inch or less Saturday morning. While we won`t see much relief in terms of temperatures, the limited moisture will keep conditions mostly dry on Saturday. Highs are expected to top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Moisture gradually increases on Sunday as surface high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf and southerly flow returns to the forecast. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible especially during the afternoon hours when peak heating occurs. As we head into next week, ensemble and most deterministic guidance suggests that another late season front may try to move into the area as an upper trough digs across the eastern US. Have stuck close to the NBM for rain and storm chances early next week with coverage remaining mostly isolated to scattered. Temperatures may cool slightly behind this front, but only by a few degrees or so. /14 MARINE... Issued at 422 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 No significant marine impacts expected throughout the week as a light onshore flow prevails through midweek and then shifts westerly late in the week. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 89 73 89 72 94 67 92 / 70 30 30 60 10 30 0 10 Pensacola 76 87 75 87 75 93 70 90 / 20 30 40 60 20 30 10 10 Destin 76 86 76 87 76 90 72 89 / 20 20 30 60 20 30 10 10 Evergreen 69 91 70 88 70 92 63 91 / 50 30 50 60 10 20 0 10 Waynesboro 71 91 70 89 69 91 64 92 / 70 50 60 40 10 10 0 10 Camden 69 90 69 87 68 89 63 89 / 70 40 60 50 10 10 0 10 Crestview 69 91 70 89 70 94 64 92 / 20 30 30 60 10 30 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob