620
FXUS64 KMOB 262353
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
653 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

MVFR cigs have moved northward from the Gulf of Mexico over the
coastal areas, including all the terminal sites. These MVFR cigs
will continue spreading northward across southeast Mississippi,
southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through the
overnight hours. There could be some lifting of the clouds along
the coast late tonight into Monday morning, followed by VFR cigs
returning area-wide by noon on Memorial Day. There looks to be a
broken line of showers and thunderstorms that will move into
portions of southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama
late tonight into Monday morning that will advance southeastward
throughout the day, so added PROB30 groups to the terminal sites
this forecast cycle. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 212 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

High pressure and upper ridging dominate the weather pattern this
Sunday afternoon, with scattered clouds and temps in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Not much change is expected to the sensible weather
pattern through the remainder of the day and into this evening,
with highs reaching into the lower 90s areawide. This will begin
to change during the predawn hours as another system moves into
the region from the Plains. Until then, expect increasing clouds
overnight and lows dropping into the lower to mid 70s across our
inland counties to the upper 70s along the coast.

As mentioned above, we`ll see a brief pattern change on Monday, as
a cold front approaches the area from the west-northwest. The
upper ridge currently in place will begin to retreat to the south
as a shortwave trough moves into the Mississippi Valley this
evening. Flow aloft will become weakly southwesterly, with not a
lot of moisture advection in the mid and upper levels. Despite
that, the surface cold front will move east of the Mississippi
River early Monday morning, with enough moisture in place to
continue scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day Monday
as the front moves through. Guidance differs a bit on just how
far south the front is able to make it and whether or not the
front stalls. Based on latest trends, it appears likely that the
front will make it at least to the coast, weakening as it drifts
to the south and east.

The uncertainty on how far south the front makes and how much deep
layer moisture will be in place leads to a rather complicated set
up for tomorrow in terms of the threat for severe thunderstorms.
With plentiful low level moisture and surface heating, instability
will be rather abundant through the day. However, with the
weakening cold front and the forecast area being on the southern
fringe of the shortwave trough, there may be too little forcing to
overcome the relative lack in moisture. Confidence is not overly
high on more than isolated coverage of showers/storms over much of
the area, with even lesser confidence on the coverage of severe
thunderstorms. This makes tomorrow`s severe thunderstorm forecast
very conditional. If we have enough moisture and lift for
thunderstorms to develop, there will be enough shear associated
with the eastward moving trough to combine with the abundance of
instability to lend a low end severe thunderstorm threat. Given
the shear in place, there is a window for a very low tornado
threat across portions of our northeastern counties where the
trough becomes more negatively tilted and storms may be able to
organize and tap into the low level shear. Brief damaging wind
gusts and hail are also possible in the stronger storms. The main
timing for the severe threat is during the afternoon and evening
when peak heating may aid in the development of thunderstorms.
Again, very low confidence on the overall set up tomorrow and
there may be areas that see no rain at all. /73

SHORT and LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Any lingering thunderstorms will diminish Monday night as we lose
our daytime heating and the front slides south of the area. After
a brief period of northwesterly mid and upper level flow, flow
aloft becomes more zonal on Tuesday. Meanwhile at the surface,
high pressure building into the region from the north will keep a
northerly surface flow through the day on Tuesday. Dry conditions
are expected for the most part, though an isolated thunderstorm is
possible over interior Mississippi during the afternoon.

The frontal boundary along the coast will lift northward on
Wednesday, while another trough swings into the Mississippi Valley
once again. This broad upper trough will remain over the eastern
CONUS through the end of next week, with weak shortwaves rounding
the base of the trough each day. These shortwaves, along with the
weak frontal boundary along our coast, will aid in diurnally
driven convection, with isolated thunderstorms possible each
afternoon. Otherwise, expect hot and humid conditions to continue
for the region, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
overnight lows generally in the 60s. /73

MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue
through Monday. Winds will be slightly higher in the bays and
sounds with the afternoon seabreeze. A cold front will approach
from the north on Monday and push offshore by Tuesday night. A
light diurnal flow pattern will follow in the wake of the front,
with offshore flow at night becoming onshore during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  90  71  93  68  89  69  89 /  10  40  10  10  10  20  20  20
Pensacola   78  87  74  91  71  87  71  88 /  10  40  20  10  10  10  20  20
Destin      78  86  75  90  73  87  72  87 /  10  20  20  10  10  10  10  10
Evergreen   73  90  67  93  65  89  64  88 /  10  50  20  10  10  20  20  20
Waynesboro  73  93  66  93  66  87  65  87 /  30  30  10  10  10  30  20  20
Camden      73  90  67  90  65  87  64  86 /  20  50  10  10  10  20  20  20
Crestview   72  90  69  94  65  91  65  91 /  10  40  20  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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