549
FXUS64 KMOB 251808
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
108 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through Wednesday morning.
Isolated SHRA/TSRA are still expected to develop near the coast
this afternoon. Confidence in direct impact at KMOB/KBFM remains
low but with convection potentially nearby, we maintained mention
of VCTS at both terminals starting around 21Z. Any isolated
convection that develops should diminish by early evening (around
01Z or so). /21


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Localized patchy fog has developed early this morning and is
temporarily reducing visibilities to around 3-5 statute miles in
some locations areas. This fog development should quickly dissipate
around sunrise. Current radar scans are also showing a few showers
that have developed over the Gulf waters as a result of the land
breeze circulation.

As we head into the rest of the day, shortwave ridging will be in
place over the Southeastern US. This ridging aloft will help keep
temperatures very hot this afternoon with highs climbing into the
middle and upper 90s and perhaps even to around 100 degrees in a few
locations. Down at the surface, a remnant boundary is currently
positioned over south central Alabama and will slowly sink south
towards the Alabama and Florida state line through the afternoon
before dissipating. Drier air is expected to mix down into far
interior portions of south central Alabama behind the surface
boundary which will help to keep heat index values in the 100-105
degree range over Wilcox, Butler, and Crenshaw Counties. South of
this boundary, moisture will remain plentiful with PWATs of 1.6-1.9
inches. This moisture combined with the very hot temperatures will
result humid conditions over southeast Mississippi, southwest
Alabama, portions of south central Alabama (Clarke, Monroe, and
Conecuh), and the Florida Panhandle. Heat index values in these
areas will rise into the 108-110 degree range today, and a Heat
Advisory remains in effect from 10am this morning until 7pm this
evening. There is the potential for some relief this afternoon with
isolated to scattered showers and storms developing along the sea-
breeze and any lingering outflow boundaries. A few strong,
microburst type storms will also be possible especially if storms
are able to cluster together given the dry air aloft and DCAPE
values of 1000-1500 J/Kg. Any convection that develops should
quickly dissipate early this evening with the loss of daytime
heating. Conditions tonight remain warm and humid with highs ranging
from the middle 70s inland to around 80 degrees at the beaches.

Rain chances will increase through the day Wednesday as a shortwave
trough slides over the Southeast and deepens a longwave tough over
much of the eastern US. The aforementioned surface boundary over
south central Alabama continues to dissipate early Wednesday morning
as another front begins to move into the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. Deep layer moisture quickly improves across the area on
Wednesday with PWATs rising back to 2-2.3 inches area wide. This
moisture combined with the sea-breeze and upper level shortwave will
help to increase storm coverage through the day. A few storms on
Wednesday could become strong, but overall the severe threat
continues to be limited. Temperatures will still be hot on Wednesday
with highs generally in the lower to middle 90s. A few areas in our
far eastern zones could even see temperatures in the upper 90s where
storms may not initiate until later in the afternoon. We`ll have to
watch closely for the need of another Heat Advisory on Wednesday as
heat index values will be nearing advisory criteria. Although, this
will largely depend on the if we can reach that before storms begin
to initiate. /14

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 459 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Rain chances increase Wednesday into Thursday as a long wave
trough digs across the eastern states. This will send a weak
boundary southward toward the area. The boundary will stall across
the area through Thursday. The combination of the boundary, along
with the upper trough will bring scattered to locally numerous
showers and storms both days. Coverage will peak during the
afternoon and early evening hours. The higher coverage of showers
and storms will keep high temps a little lower, in the low 90s.
The trough moves east by Friday with weak upper ridging returning.
This will maintain daily chances of scattered showers and storms
with highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will likely
be near advisory criteria again by the weekend. /13

&&


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>053-055-056-
     059-060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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