Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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224 FXUS64 KMOB 161809 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 109 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Very similar to that of Sunday 15.18Z, today shows quasi- stationary front still draped west to east near the central Gulf coast. A trough of low pressure at higher altitudes has settled a bit south and is positioned over southern AR/northern LA. With the combination of the front near the coast and the trough position, shra/tsra are favored to increased in areal coverage thru 17.00Z. In and near shra/tsra, cigs range MVFR categories and perhaps briefly down to IFR levels. Vsby briefly reduced to MVFR/IFR in and near convection along with brief strong convective wind gusts. Lowest vsby in the range will come from higher intensity RA. /10 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday Night) Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 16.12Z upper air analysis shows a broad upper trough (H20/H30) positioned east of the MS River Valley, of which the base of said trough is atop the central Gulf coast. This favors the east/southeastward translation of high altitude impulses to aid in forced ascent. To our west, short wave upper ridge is developing from the Rio- Grande Valley northward thru TX with the strongest jet streak in the southern stream aligned over the four corners of the Desert southwest at the base of sharper upper trough sliding east into the western CONUS. In the mid to lower levels, the pattern remains quite similar to that from Sunday 09/15. A trough of low pressure has settled a bit south and is positioned over southern AR/northern LA. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front remains draped west to east near the central Gulf coast. The gradient of deep moisture is aligned northwest to southeast, right over the heart of the forecast area with lower values 1.6 to 1.8 inches positioned from LA to central AL to 1.8 to 2.0" aligned over southwest AL and points east. Modestly unstable local environment is characterized by SB Capes ranging 1500-2500 J/KG over southeast MS to southwest AL and expect the environment to continue to destabilize as we go into the afternoon especially in areas where there are breaks in the overcast and better solar insolation. Considering the front/upper level troughing in place, sufficient deep layer moisture and instability, showers and storms are anticipated to increase in areal coverage through the remainder of the day. The weakened state of bulk shear values at this time, suggest that storms will remain sub-severe. The main threats in storms today look to continue to be the high efficiency of rain rate processes resulting in potential of isolated, flooding in those areas subject to poor drainage where storms move over/or slowly across the same areas. It is difficult to nail down where the heavier rain areas will set up but the entire area is favored for at least a marginal risk of excessive, flooding rain. Coverage is forecast to become more scattered tonight. With the quasi-stationary front lingering across southern LA and just off the AL/western FL Gulf coast Tuesday, the latest forecast calls for a 30-50% PoP generally along and south of the US Hwy 84 corridor with the higher PoPs in the range expected to be more focused near the coast. The front sinks southward out over the Gulf Tuesday night and takes with it the better rain chances which will become more aligned out over the coastal waters then. Lows this period reflect the mid 60s up along the US Hwy 84 corridor to the upper 60s/lower 70s southward to the coast. Highs in the mid 80s expected Tuesday. /10 .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob